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Invited perspective: Uncertainties in natural systems may be uncomfortable, but ignoring them would be absurd

Дата публикации: 08-10-2026 08:00:00






Natural systems are complex and uncertain, making probabilistic forecasts essential. Representing and communicating all uncertainties is challenging but vital for risk management. A multidisciplinary review identified common challenges across hazards and proposes a shared framework based on a clear hierarchy of uncertainties, complete forecasts, rigorous model evaluation, and effective communication to support decision-making.



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