By the time this column appears, the world will feel very different from when my previous column appeared earlier this month. In just days, a conflict that some in Washington seemed to believe would quickly topple Iran’s leadership has instead become a potentially long and uncertain war, with little clarity on how or when it will end.

The front lines will have shifted, more oil tankers will have been stuck at sea and more flights cancelled, and there will almost certainly have been further civilian deaths in what is, at its core, a war of choice. Events are moving faster than governments – or markets – seem able to absorb.

We last felt this kind of shock in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic. Hong Kong, like many places, discovered how quickly an unseen threat could upend trade, travel and daily life. This time, however, the shock is man-made, radiating from the Gulf and Levant through the energy markets, shipping lanes and air routes. Where the pandemic closed borders for public health, this conflict is closing them for military and geopolitical reasons.