Where fixed and wireless networks have yet to reach, satellite internet can be a boon for connecting the unconnected. It has changed lives. In the Caribbean, where hurricanes seasonally torment telecommunications (and power) infrastructure, it can save lives. With each storm, more people see the benefit of being connected to a non-terrestrial network (NTN) for internet service. 

But can there be too much of this good thing? Networks can be overwhelmed by too many users, as everyone has experienced in crowds and peak usage times. Satellites and Starlink are no different. As more users join Starlink’s broadband service, data speed performance can take a hit.

• Hurricanes are catalysts for Starlink service share growth. In the three months after Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, there was a 178% increase in the number of Starlink Speedtest user samples.
• Too many users cut Starlink’s download speed by more than half. Before Hurricane Melissa Starlink’s median download speed was over 100 Mbps; a month after the storm the median was below 50 Mbps. Starlink is raising prices, perhaps to encourage customers to leave in order to regain capacity. (It might be working.)
• Hurricane Melissa solidified Starlink as a valid ISP alternative in Jamaica. Is this a risk? There is no disputing the humanitarian benefit of opening up free satellite service during and immediately after a hurricane, nor the perpetual resiliency it provides as a redundant or backup/failover service. However, as NTN providers gain customers and significant market share, they may threaten small nations’ telecommunications sector and sovereignty.

Starlink launched its satellite broadband service in the Caribbean in the second half of 2022. Here are the timings of select hurricanes:

• In the Dominican Republic, Starlink started offering service in July 2022. A year later in July and August 2023, Speedtest samples increased reflecting the effect of its first-time service on cruise ships (July) and Franklin (August).
• In October 2022, Starlink began offering service to customers in Jamaica; in July 2024 the impact of Beryl was clearly observed.
• Starlink launched service in Puerto Rico in August 2022 and two years later in August 2024, Ernesto made its mark.
• In late October 2025, the devastation of Melissa was visited upon Jamaica. 

The initial effect and immediate aftermath of Melissa on Jamaica’s telecommunications networks was examined by Ookla Research earlier this year in Jamaica and Melissa: A Look Back at Communication Network Durability. Due to the severity of Hurricane Melissa and the duration of the recovery, the steep increase in sample share is noteworthy and understandable. Starlink provided its service (and assisted in distribution of kit) for free in November 2025, yet even with the monthly fee restored in December, its share peaked at 27.6% in December 2025. This can be attributed to part of the telecommunications infrastructure (and power grid) still not being restored, and likely in combination with some people getting their bill and realizing they needed to cancel the service. 

An extended decay curve of Starlink Speedtest samples looks to be settling in at nearly 16% share, up from its 9% share plateau between Beryl and Melissa.

Given the nascency of Starlink’s broadband service, it had a relatively low sample share in the three countries examined above. Thus, changes in share caused by each storm were easier to detect relative to this small base. For example, in the Dominican Republic, Franklin saw a 27% increase in Speedtest sample share for Starlink. Beryl, Ernesto and Melissa drive even larger percentage increases – 63%, 68%, 172%.

In all three countries – Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico – Starlink’s network performance, in terms of median download speed, approximately matches that of the ISPs in each country. This was not necessarily expected given the presumption that Starlink’s capacity would be similar in any Caribbean country (meaning, the countries are all covered by the same constellation of satellites.). However, Starlink, like other wireless operators, has the ability to “load” its network’s capacity based on how many customers it has. And Starlink can entice more customers with offers of discounted equipment or a lower monthly service price. Thus, it makes sense to calibrate the capacity and the size of the customer base to be competitive with local ISP service quality, if this is indeed its approach.

At least that made sense until Melissa blasted Jamaica. The steep climb in Starlink Speedtest users resulted in a correspondingly steep descent in network performance. Median download speed plummeted from over 100 Mbps before Melissa to below 50 Mbps in the months following the hurricane. 

This is where it gets more interesting. Just as Starlink can attract more customers with discounts, it could also encourage customers to leave by raising prices (and still protect overall revenue). In fact, this is what is happening. Starlink emailed customers in Jamaica that, effective June 18, it was raising its price for monthly residential service from JMD 7,000 (USD 44.40) to JMD 7,450 (USD 47.25).

This price increase seems to have had the desired effect: Starlink’s median download speed during May – July 2026 recovered to above 50 Mbps.

Another tool for Starlink to manage its network capacity is to block its customer acquisition, but according to its map, service is “Available Now” in all of Jamaica as of this writing. This is simply controlling the classical supply-demand curves with price (P) and quantity (Q). 

Speaking of minding Ps and Qs, additional satellite capacity (quantity) is coming later this year. Starlink’s parent SpaceX is working on a new, third generation of satellites that it claims will have 10 times the downlink capacity and 24 times the uplink capacity of its second generation satellites. New user terminals, for one thing, will be required, so the adoption and effect on customer experience won’t happen overnight, but the potential for additional capacity is a reminder that the telecommunications landscape increasingly competes with the telecommunications spacescape. 

Jamaica has two main providers of fixed internet service – Digicel+ and Flow. Digicel is not a publicly traded company, but Flow’s parent company, Liberty Latin America, is (NASDAQ: LILA). Liberty Latin America reported that Hurricane Melissa drove over 110,000 fixed customers off its network in Jamaica. Some of these were literally severed from their internet connection while others lost power, and both problems were common. These simply needed to get power and connectivity restored to get their service back up and running.

However, a fair portion didn’t wait around and, appear to have, signed on with Starlink (as seen in its Speedtest sample share increase above). In fact, Liberty called out that it lost 57,000 residential internet subscribers due to Hurricane Melissa. We can assume something similar happened at Digicel.

The 57,000 customers lost from Melissa fed into a Q4 2025 overall net loss of 61,200 for Flow. 

Did all these lost customers come back once the power grid and the services were restored? No they did not. In fact, only about a thousand returned the next quarter, comparing the Q1 2026 net additions of 4.8 thousand to Q1 2025 with 3.8 thousand net internet additions.

This all raises a long-term question, one that will be answered over the coming months and years: When natural disasters strike, how many customers who flee to satellite internet stay there for the long term? And how many of these customers can satellite internet providers support over the long term?

Post-hurricane realities have accelerated a shift in consumer behavior: many Jamaican consumers who turned to Starlink for emergency connectivity have decided to keep the service. Consequently, Jamaica has effectively transitioned into a three-player broadband market.

While Starlink’s high upfront equipment costs naturally skim the premium, less price-sensitive tier of consumers—leaving the mass market to the incumbents—this raises two uncomfortable questions:

• Market Viability: Can an economy of Jamaica’s size (2.8 million people; 920,000 households) maintain a healthy, viable telecommunications marketplace when split among three distinct providers?
• Telecommunications Sovereignty: Does a viable NTN operating outside of traditional domestic borders represent a threat to national telecommunications sovereignty?

These are not new problems, and Jamaica is not alone in this. Digicel and Flow were able to use their pan-Caribbean scale to spread risk. But satellite constellations do not operate country by country either. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) globally are grappling with these challenges. In small economies, the structure of the telecoms business dictates that only a limited number of players can coexist if providers are to scale their capital investments effectively.

When “overbuilders-in-space” bypass local terrestrial infrastructure, the economic fallout it presents a risk to high-tech local jobs, tax revenues, and governments ability to regulate and govern critical infrastructure, and customer data travels outside country borders. SIDS are exploring collaborative frameworks—pooling resources for shared infrastructure and jointly negotiating with global tech providers—to maintain digital independence. (To learn more, an excellent resource is “Digital Sovereignty in Small Island Developing States: Policy Options and Trade-Offs” from CANTO Publications.) 

While this article has focused on the broadband ISP business, a similar storm is building for the cellular providers. Direct-to-Device (D2D, sometimes Direct-to-Cell/D2C) connectivity beamed from satellites to modern, unmodified smartphones is coming. Actually, to a limited extent, D2D is already here, with connections happening in many countries around the globe

With IPO-flush SpaceX advancing its Starlink Mobile network, the potential peril to mobile-first providers shouldn’t be downplayed–not by the telcos and not by the regulators. Beware, the overbuilders-in-space.