Дата публикации: 01-07-2026 19:09:50

The race to restore Hormuz
Welcome back to AL-MONITOR Business & Tech.This week, we look at the latest in the US-Iran talks to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz as well as postwar Syria’s growing energy sector and why Iraq is reportedly considering leaving OPEC.Sign up for weekly updates here.Thanks for reading,Jack (@jackvdutton)Hormuz talks continue in Doha This aerial photograph shows boats anchored off Oman's northern Musandam Peninsula near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, 2026. — AFP via Getty ImagesTalks between US and Iranian officials continued in Doha on Wednesday as both sides sought to secure a lasting ceasefire and agree on the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.A fragile truce was repeatedly tested by military exchanges and attacks on commercial vessels that choked maritime traffic through the strait. Before the conflict began in late February, 130-140 ships transited the waterway daily. That number stood at just 22 on Sunday, according to Kpler data.The negotiations coincided with a new maritime incident as a foreign container ship ran aground on Wednesday on the Omani side of the strait. Iranian officials said the vessel had ignored Tehran's designated shipping corridor amid a growing dispute over who controls navigation there.The central sticking point remains Iran's insistence that it has the authority to designate shipping routes through the strait and, once the current interim agreement expires, potentially charge vessels for passage. Washington and Gulf states maintain that the strait is an international waterway and international law guarantees free transit. Syria’s energy ambitionsA general view shows the Awad oil field in the eastern Qamishli countryside in northeastern Syria, on Feb. 9, 2026. — Amjad Kurdo / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty ImagesSyria’s energy push could soon get a major boost from Chevron. Last week, Syrian officials met with executives from the US energy firm to discuss converting a preliminary offshore exploration agreement into a binding contract. Talks also explored Chevron’s potential involvement in reviving a long-dormant pipeline linking Iraq to Syria’s Mediterranean coast, a significant development for the war-torn country’s reconstruction push.Details: Per Syria's state news agency, discussions focused on steps to convert an existing memorandum of understanding covering offshore exploration in Syria’s Block 1 into an executive contract. The two sides also discussed the possibility of Chevron participating in the rehabilitation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline, a strategic route that once carried Iraqi crude oil through Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. Why it matters: There is a broader shift underway in Syria’s energy sector as officials seek to move beyond headline-grabbing discussions and secure the contracts, infrastructure investment and field activity needed to restore production as Syria pursues offshore exploration and larger infrastructure projects.Oil crunch, corruption test IraqA worker at a market for fuel oil and automotive fuel on March 17, 2026, in Erbil, Iraq. — Sedat Suna/Getty ImagesReuters reported this week that Baghdad is weighing all its options, including leaving OPEC, if the producer group does not raise Iraq's production quota, although the Oil Ministry later said such reports do not reflect official government policy. Iraq is grappling with a severe fiscal squeeze after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slashed oil exports and government revenue. Iraq pumped just 1.48 million barrels per day in May, down from nearly 4.2 million per day before the conflict, while Reuters reported monthly oil income has fallen from around $7 billion to roughly $1 billion. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged to intensify a sweeping anti-corruption campaign following the arrest of 47 people, including an Oil Ministry official, lawmakers and an adviser to former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Transparency International ranks Iraq among the world's 50 most corrupt countries, while both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch cite weak institutions and pervasive corruption as key risks to investment. Together, the two challenges outline the scale of the reforms facing Zaidi as he seeks to restore Iraq's finances and attract investment.  Chart of the week A prolonged closure of Hormuz has long ranked among the world's ultimate nightmare energy scenarios. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies and sizable liquefied natural gas exports pass through the narrow waterway. Analysts have consistently warned that a sustained disruption could send prices soaring, fuel inflation and trigger a recession.Instead, oil prices remained below the highs that followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Crude traded under or near $100 per barrel through much of the Hormuz blockade as markets consistently bet diplomacy would prevail. Ample supplies powered by record US production heading into 2026, historic emergency stockpile releases and China's ability to sharply reduce crude imports all helped blunt the shock. The experience is already prompting some observers to question whether the era of major Middle East oil shocks is fading. Read the full analysis here.  What we found interesting this weekThe Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, adorns the Dubai skyline as people sunbathe on Jumerah beach, on Jan. 30, 2025. — FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty ImagesThe United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman have all unveiled or advanced measures to attract or retain foreign investors, wealthy residents, tourists and workers in June in an effort to restore confidence after the US-Israel-Iran war rattled one of the Gulf's biggest selling points: stability.The moves, ranging from expanded visa access to eased foreign property ownership, follow nearly 100 days of conflict that disrupted travel, unsettled financial markets and prompted some foreign residents to flee Gulf states. Read Sam Wendel’s full report here.  Also on our radarA student attends a training seminar at the Tourism Ministry Training center in the city of Riyadh on Aug. 30, 2022. — NASSER AL-HARBI/AFP via Getty Images🎙️Saudi Arabia's workforce localization drive is making rapid progress, but developing local talent will remain a generational challenge. Read my interview with Armada Holding CEO Olivier Badard. 📶Kuwaiti telecoms firm Zain is reportedly securing a license to operate a mobile phone network in Syria, positioning it to become the first foreign telecom operator to enter the country's market since the country's 13-year civil war ended in 2024. Top deals💡 Venture capitalUS investors lead $30 million funding for Gulf AI startup 1001UAE fintech AXON bags $1 million investmentSaudi fintech Revora raises $2 million🌍ExpansionsArab Bank Switzerland opens office in Dubai’s DIFC💰 Investment & financeUAE’s Zain to invest $1.5 billion in Syria with new mobile licenseAbu Dhabi health firm Burjeel Holdings issues $500 million sukukQatar Investment Authority injects $490 million into German energy firm RWEAbu Dhabi’s MGX raises $49 billion for AI fund🤝Projects & partnershipsUAE energy firm XRG to acquire upstream assets to supply Argentina LNG projectAbu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group, IRH Global sign bunkering MoU for Khalifa PortDubai Residential REIT adds 220 Jebel Ali townhouses in $243 million acquisitionUAE’s DP World, Arcapita’s Lintara break ground on logistics center in JafzaSterling and Wilson secures $530 million Egyptian solar project orderDubai ruler’s son buys $46.5 million London townhouse™️MiscUAE’s Etihad Rail completes first journey from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah UAE-Ukraine CEPA enters into force July 1
smzali@al-moni…
Wed, 07/01/2026 - 15:09



Jack Dutton


This aerial photograph shows boats anchored off Oman's northern Musandam Peninsula near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, 2026. — AFP via Getty Images


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