There seemed little doubt after the chaos of the last few weeks that Ben Stokes would take England’s first wicket on his return for this decisive third Test. The problem was that the clock read 5.23pm and New Zealand’s total 317.

Of all the things that may yet bring the curtain down on this breathless era in English cricket, no one gave much thought to the toss of a coin.

Not a late-night booze-up. Not a miscommunicated curfew. Not a captain speaking mysteriously about his future. Just a 50–50 call on one of the flattest surfaces Nottingham can ever have produced. The devil may really end up being in the smallest of details.

From the moment Stokes and Brendon McCullum first inspected this Trent Bridge pitch on Tuesday, they were in no doubt. An initial 20mm covering of grass, later cut to 10mm, masked dryness below, even a few cracks, with the potential to open up under the baking sun. Temperatures in the mid-30s buttressed the logic for batting first.

And yet. Nearly seven hours after triumphantly calling ‘heads’, New Zealand captain Tom Latham had contributed to his side’s highest-ever opening stand against England. When he finally edged through to Jamie Smith for 151, Stokes celebrated with a mixture of delight, relief and exhaustion, though possibly not in that order.

In the next over, Devon Conway – having moved through the gears to 157 – lofted Joe Root’s off-spin to deep midwicket, where the sub fielder Matthew Fisher held a good tumbling catch: 319 for two.

From there, England – in fairness – kept at it. Moments before the close, Rachin Ravindra skied a hook at Gus Atkinson, the pick of the attack on his own return from the Rex Rooms saga, and was caught by Smith.

And when the under-used Jofra Archer had Henry Nicholls caught behind for 36 from the next delivery, stumps were taken at 361 for four, the scoreboard looking slightly less grim for England than it had five minutes earlier.

New Zealand’s dominance is not yet a guarantee of anything. Four years ago at this very ground, they began proceedings with 553, which was not enough to prevent a five-wicket defeat.

But that England team were in the first flushes of Bazball, the sight of a giant first-innings total a challenge to be relished not ducked. This version are drifting from one mishap to another, like a ship without its moorings. Already, the question is whether they have the nous, or even the spirit, to escape with a draw.

For Stokes, this was supposed to be the game that underscored his value to a side who looked lost without him at The Oval. He spoke in advance of the ‘love’ he had felt from the public during his mini-exile, and as if to prove the point received affirmative cheers and applause when he brought himself on to bowl at 12.25pm.

But at drinks in the final session, with the scoreboard reading 288 without loss, he briefly left the pitch and was met with an embarrassed silence. The British sporting public can forgive its heroes plenty, but no one knew quite where to look.

One of the several scenarios encouraged by Stokes’s gnomic utterances on the eve of this match was that this may be his final Test. And while England didn’t bowl poorly, and New Zealand’s openers batted ruthlessly, a day of four wickets hardly felt like the pick-me-up he craved.

Everything that could have gone wrong, it’s true, very much did. In the sixth over, Stokes moved third slip to gully, only to watch Latham miscue the next ball through the gap he had just created.

After lunch, with Conway on 71 and the stand worth 157, England declined to review an lbw shout from Shoaib Bashir: replays revealed three reds, the ball brushing the front pad a fraction before hitting the bat. Later, with Latham on 129 and the total 276, Smith contrived to put down a simple leg-side chance off Atkinson, as bad a drop as any.

For a while it looked as if the New Zealanders might become the first pair of openers to bat through a day in England since Mark Taylor and Geoff Marsh did so here for Australia in 1989.

England were spared that indignity, but little else, as it dawned on the ECB employees present that the prospect of a face-saving win was fading by the over.

There remains dismay behind the scenes that someone else may yet pay the price for the captain’s decision to carry on drinking at a Chelsea nightclub on the night of the apparently restorative first-Test win at Lord’s.

That person is unlikely to be McCullum, whose position was strengthened by the Lord’s victory, and who will not be held accountable for losing the second Test at The Oval with a team full of novices.

And that leaves the target squarely on the back of managing director Rob Key, under whose watch the confusion over the curfew occurred. It is that confusion which contributed to the shifting of the blame away from Stokes and towards the ECB, and helped cement public opinion behind the captain.

All these cracks, of course, might have been papered over had Stokes won the toss. And, who knows, the late fightback may yet be the catalyst for something special. But nothing that happened in Nottingham dispelled the notion that this is an England set-up very much on the brink.