Iran has reached a grim milestone in its economic confrontation with the Trump administration, with the last barrels of crude stockpiled beyond the reach of a US naval blockade now exhausted.

“Iran's oil on water outside the blockade has fallen to zero as of last week, and all volumes have been discharged in China,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at energy intelligence firm Kpler, told Al-Monitor. “This is the first time Iran has faced such a challenge in its modern history.”

On paper, Iran’s oil sales reaching rock bottom marks a potential turning point in Washington’s campaign to choke off Tehran’s economic lifelines. But it remains uncertain whether mounting financial pain will force concessions or intensify a conflict as both sides continue saber-rattling.

The milestone comes roughly two months into Operation Economic Outcast, a US sanctions campaign backed by a maritime blockade aimed at depriving Iran of revenue to sustain its government and war effort. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted on Sept. 27 that Iran would complete its remaining oil deliveries within two weeks, leaving Tehran with “nothing left to trade for anything.”