Counterpoint Research has predicted that global foldable phone shipments will surpass 100 million units by the end of this year, with the iPhone Ultra playing a major role in this growth. The firm says it expects Apple to take 25% of the entire market this year – and it may be the biggest player by the same time next year.

In timing unlikely to be coincidental, the Xiaomi 18 Fold, leaked last month, is officially launching in China the day before Apple’s event …

While folding smartphones get a lot of attention, Counterpoint says that they currently only account for about 2% of the total market. This is expected to change significantly in the next 12 months, with 24% growth expected this year and a further 37% next.

The report says the market will see new products from Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Motorola, Honor, Google, Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi. The firm says Apple will be entering the market with a bang.

Apple’s entry will likely make an immediate impact. Counterpoint forecasts up to 6 million foldable iPhone shipments in 2026, giving Apple a 25% share of the global market and the No. 2 position, behind Samsung at 38% and ahead of Huawei at 22%.

It will be significant for Apple to achieve this ranking so quickly after entering the category, particularly given the relatively short selling window expected this year […] A full year of Apple sales will be a major driver, with Apple shipments expected to more than double and its share set to reach 40%.

That would exceed Samsung’s current 38% share.

Xiaomi, which has made a name for itself by cloning many Apple products, appears to be seeking to do the same with its 18 Fold.

The upcoming model, which shares the book format of the iPhone Ultra, which was leaked toward the end of last month before being shown off at IFA, has now officially launched on the eve of Apple’s Surprise and Shine event.

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