Update 9/28: Tesla has since confirmed that it’s rescheduling the Roadster event to October 15, citing “severe conditions predicted.” We have more on the two-week delay here.

Tesla is warning guests invited to its October 1 Roadster event that the long-delayed demo could get pushed back again, and this time it’s the weather.

In an email to invitees, Tesla says the event “must be held outdoors” and may need to be rescheduled. And the forecast for central Texas on Thursday calls for an 82% chance of rain, with thunderstorms.

The email, titled “Important: Roadster Event Weather,” was shared by one of the invitees. Tesla tells the guest it’s “looking forward to hosting you” on October 1, 2026, then adds that “there is a possibility we may need to reschedule due to weather.”

According to Tesla, the event “features a unique experience that must be held outdoors,” and the company is “continuing to monitor weather reports.” There’s no backup date in the email, only a promise to “reach out with additional details as soon as possible.”

Tesla teased the October 1 reveal earlier this month with a “Go for launch” image. As we reported in August, the centerpiece is a hover demonstration using a SpaceX-developed cold gas thruster package, code-named A71, at SpaceX’s rocket test site in McGregor, Texas, just outside Waco. The car is expected to run remotely with nobody inside, and spectators are to be kept several hundred yards back because the thrusters are loud enough to damage eardrums.

So “outdoors” isn’t a stylistic choice. You don’t fire thrusters in a tent.

Open-Meteo forecast data for McGregor, pulled Monday morning, shows an 82% chance of precipitation on Thursday, October 1, with thunderstorms in the forecast and wind gusts up to 32 mph.

Friday isn’t much better on rain at 75%, but the wind drops to gusts around 13 mph. By Saturday, the chance of rain falls to 42%.

Forecasts three days out can still move. But thunderstorms and 30+ mph gusts are about the last conditions you’d pick for making a car hover on cold gas thrusters in front of a crowd.

Tesla unveiled the next-gen Roadster prototype in November 2017 and promised production in 2020. The timeline has slipped at least eight times since.

The demo alone has moved repeatedly. Musk said last October a “flying” demo was coming by the end of 2025. A week later, Tesla pushed it to April 1, 2026, and production to 2027 or 2028. April became “maybe in a month or so” on the Q1 earnings call, then August, then October 1.

Reservation holders put down $50,000 for a standard Roadster and $250,000 for the Founders Series. Nearly nine years later, nobody has a car.

While this would be delay number 12 after 9 years, at least this one isn’t on Musk. Tesla can’t control thunderstorms in Texas, and if the forecast holds, postponing a remote-controlled hover stunt with a crowd nearby is the responsible call.

But it tells you a lot about the Roadster program that the biggest risk to its launch event is wind and rain. A car you can actually buy and drive doesn’t need clear skies to be shown off. A stunt with SpaceX hardware does.

If Tesla does have to push it, we expect days, not months. The real question is what shows up when it finally happens: a production-intent car with final specs, a price, and a delivery date, or another flashy video that resets the clock?

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