MEXICO CITY, MEXICO — Mexico’s overall grain production is forecast to fall for marketing year 2026-27, pushing up imports to meet domestic demand, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Corn, rice and sorghum production are seen declining, pressured by weak profitability, elevated input costs and erratic weather, the FAS said in its recent Grain and Feed Update. Meanwhile, corn, wheat and rice imports are expected to rise to make up the difference as the United States continues to be the main supplier for grain and feed.

Grain demand in marketing year 2026-27 is expected to remain robust, driven by continued population growth and expansion in the cattle, swine and poultry sectors, the FAS said. 

“Economic gains support continued purchasing power for food and feed grains even as domestic production remains insufficient to meet rising demand,” the FAS said.

Mexico’s corn production is forecast to decline nearly 2% year on year to 24.5 million tonnes, pressured by limited profitability, continued elevated imports and erratic weather patterns linked to El Niño. Corn imports are projected to increase more than 2% to 26.8 million tonnes, due to lower production and rising demand by the livestock sector.

Total corn consumption in 2026-27 is expected to increase nearly 3% to 52.4 million tonnes in response to increased feed demand from the livestock sector, primarily poultry and hog production.

In 2025-26, the United States accounted for 99% of Mexico’s 21.4 million tonnes of corn imports, while Brazil supplied the other 1%. Yellow corn was 98% of imports, while white corn made up 2%.

“US corn remains a cornerstone of Mexico’s feed grain supply, supported by consistent year-round availability, reliable quality, integrated logistics, and competitive pricing relative to alternative origins,” the FAS said.

Wheat production is forecast to grow nearly 5% to 1.8 million tonnes, driven by higher reservoir levels in key regions. Imports are projected up nearly 4% to 5.9 million tonnes, while exports are forecast stable at 120,000 tonnes due to the limited production.

Rice production is seen dropping 6% to 160,000 tonnes due to sustained low crop prices, rising costs, and elevated imports. Imports are expected to increase by nearly 4% to 830,000 tonnes to offset this decline.

The sorghum harvest is forecast down 6% to 3.1 million tonnes on weaker profitability, erratic weather and limited water availability. Imports are projected to drop 20% to 400,000 tonnes due to decreased sorghum demand based on reduced livestock consumption.

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John Reidy is senior digital media editor for World Grain, covering the grain, flour and feed industries. He spent 25 years in newspapers as a reporter and editor and has been an editor in the grain industry since 2019. He joined Sosland Publishing Company in 2021. He is a graduate of Creighton University with a degree in journalism. Connect with John Reidy on LinkedIn or via email.