MANILA, PHILIPPINES — A moderate to strong El Niño and elevated fertilizer costs weighed on planting incentives in the Philippines, lowering milled rice production in 2026-27, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Milled rice production is estimated at 12.25 million tonnes, down from 12.36 million tonnes last year.

Programs from the Philippine government through the National Rice Program (NRP) and the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) have helped support continued rice cultivation among farmers, the FAS said.

Rice consumption in 2026-27 is estimated at 17.65 million tonnes as population-driven demand continues to outweigh elevated retail prices. Imports are forecast at 5.2 million tonnes to offset the anticipated production shortfall, the FAS said.

Corn production estimates were lowered to 8.05 million tonnes due to reduced yield amid the same irrigation risk affecting rice. Production in 2025-26 is estimated at 8.2 million tonnes.

Consumption is expected to increase on sustained poultry-sector growth, while imports will rise sharply to 2.9 million tonnes on feed sector demand, the FAS said.

A proposed corn import quota expansion remains under review, and the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) and Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) are exploring corn as an ethanol feedstock.

Wheat consumption and imports will hold steady in 2026-27, as milling wheat demand growth is offset by a feed-driven shift toward corn. For 2025-26, consumption and import estimates were increased on stronger feed wheat demand, while lowering exports on softer realized pasta demand. 

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Susan Reidy is senior editor with World Grain and editor of the Grain & Milling Annual. She has 21 years of experience covering the grain handling and milling industries, the past 17 years with Sosland Publishing Company. She received a bachelor’s of journalism degree from the University of Missouri-Columbia. Connect with Susan Reidy on LinkedIn or via email.