.2026 Ekiti Vote Should Send a Message to Abuja: Winning the State in 2027 May Require Looking Beyond the APC Structure

By: Dr. Ilesanmi Akinola, Lagos

The outcome of the recent Osun governorship election, coming alongside the low voter turnout recorded during the June 20, 2026 Ekiti State governorship election, offers important political lessons for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the country gradually moves towards the 2027 general election.

For the Presidency, the emerging reality is that winning the South-West may require more than the traditional structures of the All Progressives Congress (APC). While party machinery remains important, the ability to reach voters through trusted grassroots leaders and established political networks could prove equally decisive.

The Osun experience is particularly instructive. The political strength of Governor Ademola Adeleke and the structure around him has demonstrated that political personalities with strong grassroots followership can remain formidable electoral forces, regardless of the strength of rival party structures. If President Tinubu wants to maximise his support in Osun in 2027, the influence of Adeleke and the political network around him is something that cannot simply be ignored.

This does not necessarily mean abandoning the APC structure. Rather, it suggests that the Presidency may need to build a broader electoral coalition capable of reaching voters beyond the traditional APC constituency.

The same strategic thinking deserves consideration in Ekiti, although the political circumstances are different.

The June 20, 2026 Ekiti governorship election recorded a relatively low number of votes compared with the state’s registered voter population. With more than one million registered voters, the comparatively low turnout should be a concern to every political organisation preparing for the 2027 presidential election.

The significance of the low turnout goes beyond the outcome of the governorship election. It raises a fundamental question about voter confidence and political mobilisation: how can political leaders persuade citizens who stayed away from the polls to return to the ballot box in 2027?

Among supporters of Dr. Oluwole Olumayokun Oluyede, one explanation frequently advanced is that some voters became discouraged because they believed their preferred candidate would not be allowed to prevail. Whether that perception was objectively justified is a matter for electoral institutions and observers. Politically, however, the existence of such a perception cannot be ignored.

A voter who stays at home is different from a voter who comes out and votes against a political party.

That distinction could become extremely important in 2027.

This is where Dr. Oluyede’s political relevance comes into focus.

The former PDP governorship candidate has retained a significant political network across Ekiti State. His political family extends across the state’s 16 Local Government Areas and 177 political wards, giving him access to grassroots stakeholders in communities across the state.

The unveiling of the Oluyede Progressive Alliance for Renewed Hope Agenda (OPARHA) provided perhaps the clearest indication of the strength of that network after the governorship election.

The inaugural meeting was initially planned for about 2,000 representatives. However, more than 5,000 PDP stakeholders and representatives were accredited, representing political stakeholders from across the 16 local government areas.

The significance of the gathering was not simply the number of people who attended. It was the fact that these were members and representatives of the political family that stood with Oluyede during the governorship campaign and continued to identify with him after the election.

That network, if properly organised and sustained, represents a potential political asset ahead of 2027.

But perhaps the most significant development is Oluyede’s decision to support President Tinubu while remaining a member of the Peoples Democratic Party.

Oluyede has been explicit about his position. He remains in the PDP, but he has declared that he will work for President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.

This places him in a unique political position.

He is not asking his supporters to abandon their political identity. Instead, he is making the argument that national interest can sometimes require political cooperation beyond party boundaries.

For the Presidency, that distinction could be valuable.

There are voters who may not identify with the APC but may be willing to listen to a political leader they already know and trust. A message delivered by a familiar opposition figure may resonate differently from a message delivered by a traditional ruling-party campaign structure.

Oluyede could therefore potentially serve as a bridge between the Presidency and sections of the opposition electorate in Ekiti.

His political history also strengthens that argument. He has previously been associated with the South West Agenda (SWAGA), which mobilised support for President Tinubu’s presidential ambition before the 2023 election. His present decision to establish OPARHA can consequently be viewed as another chapter in his involvement in grassroots political mobilisation.

The Presidency should also recognise that presidential elections are different from governorship elections. A presidential candidate requires a much wider coalition.

The APC can provide the formal political structure, but that structure may need to be complemented by influential community leaders, former opposition candidates, political organisers, youth leaders, women leaders and other stakeholders capable of reaching citizens who are not naturally aligned with the governing party.

This is particularly important in Ekiti, where the low turnout in the 2026 governorship election suggests that mobilisation will be one of the major challenges ahead of 2027.

President Tinubu may have achieved significant milestones at the federal level, but communicating those achievements effectively at the grassroots remains critical. Citizens must understand how federal policies affect their communities, livelihoods and future.

Political leaders with established grassroots relationships can play an important role in translating national policies into messages that ordinary citizens understand.

That is where Oluyede’s proposed role becomes significant.

The objective should not be to weaken the APC in Ekiti but to broaden the President’s electoral coalition. The traditional party structure and cross-party grassroots mobilisation can work together rather than compete with each other.

For President Tinubu, recognising credible opposition figures who are willing to support his second-term bid could therefore become part of a wider strategy to secure broader support across the South-West.

In Ekiti, Dr. Oluyede has already made his position clear. He remains a PDP leader, remains committed to the people of Ekiti State and has openly declared his intention to work for President Tinubu in 2027.

The question now is whether the Presidency will recognise the political opportunity presented by such a position.

If Oluyede succeeds in transforming the OPARHA network into a disciplined, statewide mobilisation structure, he could emerge as an important bridge between the Presidency and voters outside the traditional APC base.

The lesson from Osun and Ekiti may therefore be straightforward: party structures matter, but grassroots trust, political relationships and voter mobilisation matter just as much.

For President Tinubu, the road to a stronger 2027 performance in the South-West may require a combination of both. In Osun, the political influence of Adeleke cannot be ignored. In Ekiti, the grassroots network of Oluyede deserves similar strategic attention.

Ultimately, elections are won at the ballot box, and the ballot box is reached through the people.

If President Tinubu’s objective is to secure overwhelming support in Ekiti in 2027, the Presidency may need to look beyond conventional party boundaries and recognise leaders who can mobilise voters across those boundaries.

Oluyede has offered himself for that role.

The next question is whether Abuja is prepared to take him seriously.