Oil prices surged last week, extending the rally for the third week straight. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($96.80/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹8,604/barrel) gained 9.9 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively. 

Brent crude futures surpassed the 50-day moving average early last week. It marked a high of $102 on Thursday before moderating to end the week lower.

Although the price action shows strong upward momentum, the contract could not move past the psychological $100-mark last week. 

While the contract might surpass $100, we might witness a minor decline before such an upswing. The price could correct to $91 or $86. A potential rally after this drop can take the contract to $112-115 price region.

Crude oil futures (Aug) eased past the barrier at ₹8,000 early last week and hit a two-month high of ₹9,058 on Thursday before wrapping up the week at ₹8,604.

Since the contract has closed above ₹8,500, there is a good chance for further rally. However, if there is a price drop in Brent crude futures, which is possible, crude oil futures in the domestic market, too, can see a decline.

The contract in the domestic market could fall to ₹8,000 or ₹7,700 and then resume the rally, which can lift the price to ₹10,000.

On the other hand, if the support at ₹7,700 is breached, the outlook might turn weak. 

Trade strategy: If crude oil futures drop to ₹8,000, initiate fresh long positions. Place stop-loss at ₹7,500. When the contract touches ₹9,000 and ₹9,500, alter the stop-loss to ₹8,500 and ₹9,000 respectively. Book profits at ₹10,000.

Published on July 25, 2026