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Justin Herbert has started three playoff games. They've all ended in massive failure.

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Late last season Herbert talked about how a brutal performance in a playoff loss to the Houston Texans ate at him. Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers made the playoffs last season and instead of gaining redemption, they flopped again.

After that 16-3 playoff loss to the Patriots, Herbert met with the media and was tossed what should have been a softball question. He was asked if he has the confidence to get over the hump, get a playoff win and go on a run. In that moment, the easy way out would have been to exude confidence and say yes.

Herbert didn't do it.

"Uh, yeah, I don't know," Herbert said after the game. "I haven't figured it out yet, and it hasn't happened yet so we'll have to reevaluate and see what happens."

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Interviews after playoff losses are never fun for anyone, and emotions are high. Herbert's answer might not really be an indication that he feels unsure about whether he and the Chargers can win a playoff game. But suddenly, the playoff failures are a part of his story, and will be until he and the Chargers win at least one postseason game.

Herbert's playoff résumé is really bad, especially for a good quarterback. In Herbert's first playoff appearance with the Chargers, they blew a 27-0 lead at the Jaguars at the end of the 2022 season. Two postseasons ago Herbert threw four interceptions against the Texans. Last season, he had 159 passing yards and the Chargers scored three points in a loss to New England. Herbert has a career 96.3 passer rating in the regular season and a 64.7 rating in the playoffs.

It's not like losing in the playoffs last season was Herbert's fault. The Chargers wouldn't have come anywhere close to a playoff berth without their quarterback, which is why Herbert got a stray MVP vote. Without injured offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, Herbert was under regular duress. He was pressured a league high 29.8% of the time, according to Pro Football Reference, 2% higher than any other quarterback. He was hit 74 times. Only Jared Goff, with 76, was hit more often and Goff played one more game than Herbert last season.

The Chargers went 11-6 and Herbert had a good season as he continues to grow under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That's commendable. But fair or not, quarterbacks are judged on playoff success. Herbert has had none yet.

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The Chargers are set up pretty well to make it back. The expected returns of Slater (ruptured patellar tendon) and Alt (high ankle) might be the most underrated storyline in the NFL. An 11-win team that could not protect its quarterback is adding back two Pro Bowl level tackles. That's big, and it trickles down to the entire offense.

Running back Omarion Hampton will have more room to run. Receiver Ladd McConkey should bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. Herbert will obviously benefit. Changing offensive coordinators from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel should push the offense in a positive direction as well.

There are still potential issues. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter left to be the Baltimore Ravens' head coach, and that's as big of a coaching loss as there was this offseason. The Chargers weren't overly aggressive in free agency despite a lot of cap space and they could regret that. The interior of the offensive line is still a concern. The Chargers also play in one of the NFL's toughest divisions, which makes their road tougher.

Still, Los Angeles has made the playoffs twice in two seasons with Harbaugh as coach, which was the hope when he was hired. The Chargers should be a playoff contender for a while. And as long as they keep getting in, Herbert should be able to put his playoff issues behind him, whether his belief in that is wavering or not.

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There were a few teams who headed into free agency with significantly more salary cap space than anyone else, and the Chargers were the only team among that group that was in the playoffs last season. The possibilities were exciting. Then the actual free agency haul was a little underwhelming. The Chargers were 11th in free agent spending, according to Spotrac.

Los Angeles' biggest addition was center Tyler Biadasz, which was much needed after Bradley Bozeman retired. Their other big-ticket additions were blocking tight end Charlie Kolar, as the Chargers join the league-wide multiple tight end trend, and guard Cole Strange. The Chargers could have spent more on better options at guard and center, but they'll hope Biadasz and Strange solidify the interior of the line. The Chargers also got a couple of value skill-position additions, bringing on running back Keaton Mitchell and tight end David Njoku.

The Chargers were able to retain edge defender Khalil Mack and offensive tackle Trey Pipkins, but did lose edge Odafe Oweh, guard Zion Johnson and cornerback Benjamin St. Juste to big deals elsewhere. The Chargers hope first-round edge rusher Akheem Mesidor helps replace Oweh and second-round lineman Jake Slaughter can step in right away and start at left guard.

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It wasn't a bad offseason for the Chargers. But they were in the rare position of being among the NFL's top five in cap space available while coming off an 11-win season, and what they did felt a little light.

Grade: C

Justin Herbert was playing at an MVP level whenever just one of his normal starting offensive tackles was in the lineup. Rashawn Slater missed all season but Joe Alt played more than 50% of the snaps in four games.

In those four games, Herbert was 90 of 133 for 1,087 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Herbert had a 108.8 passer rating, which over a full season would have been third behind MVP finalists Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. The Chargers were 4-0 and averaged 26.8 points against a tough schedule that included elite defenses like the Broncos and Vikings.

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And that was with just one good tackle. Herbert gets both of his tackles back this season.

It's not always safe to assume a player off injury returns to his old form. But if Slater and Alt do play like their normal selves, there's no reason Herbert can't at least replicate that small sample level he had last season with Alt in the lineup. He should also benefit from an offensive coordinator change to Mike McDaniel. If the Chargers avoid their normal bad injury luck, Herbert could easily be an MVP candidate this season.

From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "The Chargers are huge home favorites against the Cardinals (-11.5) and Raiders (-8.5), but then are underdogs in three of their next four games heading into their bye. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel will have speedy fourth-round rookie WR Brenen Thompson to help QB Justin Herbert to new heights. Assuming that bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt can stay healthy, Los Angeles (win total of 10.5, favored in 11 games) should be very good. Working against the Chargers is a brutal schedule by rest advantage, as Los Angeles is a league-worst 24 days in the red. Not only do the Chargers play four teams coming off their bye, but they also have a rest disadvantage of minus-3 days in two other games. Look to the under 10.5 for Los Angeles."

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From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Ladd McConkey was a disappointment in his sophomore year, but that should go down as an excused absence. McConkey was tripped up by stale play-calling, an injured offensive line and a congested target tree, but all of those things appear fixed entering 2026. The appointment of OC Mike McDaniel could produce a lot of winners on this offense — we could easily pitch you for QB Justin Herbert or RB Omarion Hampton. Just make sure you enjoy McConkey's 44.6 ADP for as long as it lasts."

The most underrated storyline of practically every NFL offseason is the loss of good coordinators to head coaching jobs. The Eagles have made the Super Bowl twice this decade, and each time took a big step back after they had coordinators leave. The Lions went from a 15-win Super Bowl contender to out of the playoffs after losing both coordinators. Those are just two recent examples. Yet, we don't talk about it much.

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Jesse Minter taking the Ravens' head coaching job was a huge loss for the Chargers. In 2024, Minter's first season as coordinator, the Chargers led the NFL in points allowed. Last season the Chargers were ninth in points and fifth in yards allowed. The season before Minter came to Los Angeles, he directed a Michigan defense that went 15-0 and won a national title. There's a reason he was a hot name in the coaching carousel this offseason.

Minter is replaced by Chris O'Leary, who has some familiarity with the Chargers after spending 2024 as the team's safeties coach. He was the defensive coordinator at Western Michigan last season. It's a big gamble on the 34-year-old, who has one season in the NFL and one season as a coordinator on any level.

O'Leary said he plans to "evolve" the defense but not make many changes from what Minter was doing. There is still plenty of talent on hand, including safety Derwin James Jr., who just signed an extension as the highest paid safety in NFL history. How the Chargers transition from Minter to O'Leary is a huge story to their season.

The Chargers have invested in the running backs and pass catchers around Justin Herbert. Running back Omarion Hampton and receiver Quentin Johnston were first-round picks and Ladd McConkey was an early second. Receiver Tre Harris didn't do much as a rookie last season but he's also a second-round pick. Tight end Oronde Gadsden II was a fifth-round pick last year but had a strong rookie season and looks like a draft steal. Running back Keaton Mitchell and tight end David Njoku, both veterans signed on bargain deals this offseason, provide good depth.

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That's a good group, but is there a great player among them? Hampton and McConkey might be the closest. Hampton had an up-and-down rookie season but showed strong flashes when he wasn't injured. A better offensive line will help him. McConkey was tremendous as a rookie with 1,149 yards but that dropped to 789 last season. It's plausible that his production dropped in part due to the offensive line issues too.

It might be a case of the Chargers getting significant contributions from everyone on offense but without a standout star, much like last season's Patriots. Considering Drake Maye almost won an MVP and the Patriots made a Super Bowl in that scenario. it should be more than enough for Herbert to have a big season.

The Chargers are often the kings of the offseason. They get hyped up all summer, only to fail in fall and winter. They haven't won a division title since the 2009 season. Since 2007 they're 3-7 in the playoffs and haven't been past the divisional round. They haven't won a playoff game since the 2018 season.

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That said, there are reasons to believe in the Chargers again. They have won 11 games each of the past two seasons since Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach, and did so last season despite major problems on the offensive line. Justin Herbert has a lot of help, and could have an MVP season coming at some point. Mike McDaniel was a great hire at offensive coordinator and there's a lot of skill-position talent on hand.

Had L.A.'s offensive line been even adequate last season, maybe the Chargers would have won a few more games and been in contention for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Los Angeles would have ranked even higher had it been more aggressive in free agency with all its salary cap space, but its offseason wasn't terrible. There's enough talent to be one of the AFC's best teams. However, we've heard that before.

The past two seasons, the Chargers were good, but not great, on offense.

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In 2024, they were 20th in yards, in 2025 they were 20th in points. It has been a defensive-led team, no matter the presence of quarterback Justin Herbert on the roster. And the defense might regress with talented defensive coordinator Jesse Minter being replaced by Chris O'Leary, who has been a coordinator for one season in the MAC. O'Leary could be the rising star the Chargers believe he is, but that's yet to be seen.

Herbert is a fantastic talent but the Chargers have finished above 12th in offensive DVOA just once in his six seasons. They were 21st last season and maybe the loss of two tackles don't account for the entirety of that dip. Jim Harbaugh is a superb head coach and should boost the team's level as he generally does. But there's a scenario in which the defense has a big drop, the offense is just OK again and the Chargers miss the playoffs.

I was ready to be way too high on the Chargers this season. They had a good roster with two valuable offensive tackles returning and enough salary cap space to fill every hole they had. The lack of a true splash was disappointing and left me wondering how committed ownership is to building a champion. I also worry about the loss of Jesse Minter, who was a true difference maker for the Chargers each of the past two seasons.

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The Chargers still could have been higher on this countdown, but I like the 13 teams ahead of them a bit more. Right now they look like a team that will be vying for a wild-card spot, though their recent playoff record doesn't provide much hope for a deep run. Instead of hyping up the Chargers just to be disappointed, let's make them prove it.