On the surface, the numbers point to a resilient economy despite heightened global geopolitical tensions and elevated risk. Yet in conversations with many business leaders overseas, there is a quiet unease that has not yet entered the public debate in Hong Kong. That unease is not panic – it is arithmetic.

The figures themselves look good. Real gross domestic product grew by 5.9 per cent year on year in the first quarter, the strongest quarterly growth in nearly five years. Private consumption and retail sales grew strongly, investment surged and goods exports recorded double-digit gains. New listings and funds raised also reached their highest first-quarter levels in years, keeping Hong Kong the top listing centre globally.

Much of this momentum has been driven by a favourable mix of factors that might not endure, including a rebound in visitor numbers, active financial markets and households catching up on spending. The numbers are solid, but sentiment might be less so.

Those favourable tailwinds are being offset by rising costs. Fuel prices have climbed in recent months, feeding through to transport, freight and everyday expenses. That kind of pressure does not immediately show up in GDP. It tends to surface first in tighter margins, slower hiring and a more cautious approach in boardrooms.

Much of the recent rise in energy prices stems from disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a reminder of how exposed Hong Kong and much of Asia remain to energy shocks. About one-fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the strait, and there are few easy alternatives if that route is constrained.

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