With five rounds remaining in the 2026 AFL home-and-away season, the sprint to September is officially on.

Fremantle appear a lock for top spot, but from there it’s anyone’s guess.

Sydney’s hold on second place is under siege from Hawthorn, Collingwood are pressing, while five would-be wildcard aspirants have taken a hit – although all remain in the race.

The introduction of the wildcard round – extending the number of clubs who can make finals from eight to 10 – has ensured more teams remain in the race at this point of the campaign. We take a look at what awaits for your team. The best-case and worst-case scenarios are projections only.

What we say: The locked-and-loaded Dockers are an unstoppable force, the Power the latest to falter. They now sit three games clear on top of the ladder, and are all but certain to remain there despite what, on paper at least, is a challenging run home. The Eagles have improved, while the Bulldogs, Melbourne and Crows are flag contenders.

Best-case finish: First. Worst-case finish: First.

What we say: We asked last week if the Swans’ indifferent form was something to ponder. The answer to that is yes. There was the loss to the Brisbane Lions, the fade-out against Fremantle, and now their first home defeat of the season, against Adelaide. That’s three defeats to premiership contenders. Isaac Heeney has slipped from being the No.1-ranked player in the league to 66th since round 14. The Giants await this week. Are the Swans tumbling from a top-two position? We’ll see.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fifth.

What we say: Completed another clinical win, this time over Richmond, and are pressing for second spot on the ladder with the Swans faltering. Nick Watson continues to deliver wizardry acts, but co-captain James Sicily needs to harness his emotions, for he would not want to blow a fuse when a key game is on the line. The Hawks surely account for Essendon this week (please, no references to 1983-85), but the Brisbane Lions and Collingwood await.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.

What we say: The Lions have won six straight, and there is no reason not to think this run won’t continue for at least another fortnight. Coach Chris Fagan has made no secret of his team’s aim. “Everyone knows the ladder and percentage and all that sort of stuff, so why shy away from it,” he said. “We’ve definitely used that as motivation over the last two or three weeks. It’s so tight. We’ve got to stay in the hunt, and we want to get that top four spot.” The chance to play at least two finals at home will have the Lions primed for a premiership three-peat.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Eighth.

What we say: Last week we said the Crows were humming. Make that roaring after their sterling win in Sydney on Friday night, inflicting the Swans’ first loss at home this season. They have six wins from their past seven games, with Richmond and Essendon among their run home.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Sixth.

What we say: Coach Steven King says the Demons are far from the finished product, a statement which should worry opponents after they have won five of their past six games. We said their best-case finish was third – that’s been re-rated to second. They will embrace the Friday night lights against a banged-up Geelong this week, and appear well-placed to even claim a top-four berth amid a potentially challenging run home.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Sixth.

What we say: Last week we asked whether the Bulldogs were for real? We still can’t answer that question. Yes, it was an impressive victory against Gold Coast, but recent defeats to Adelaide and Sydney, and a less-than-convincing win over the Eagles, continue to gnaw away. Will take care of the Tigers this week, but the Dockers – and a serious litmus test – awaits.

Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: 11th.

What we say: That’s five straight wins for the Magpies, who are firmly in the hunt for a top-six finish. Is there a better team in the competition at filling selection holes and maximising their on-field performance? Now comes a season-defining month, for heavyweights Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and the Brisbane Lions are on the agenda (and West Coast in Perth). Probably need to win at least three to avoid the wildcard round.

Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: As we said last week, the Cats have arguably the easiest run home, although their growing injury list, particularly to prime movers Jeremy Cameron and Max Holmes, may negate this. It’s a toss-of-the-coin job against Melbourne and Collingwood over the next fortnight (both games at the MCG), before expected wins over the final three rounds. Is the wildcard round the Cats’ best hope?

Best-case finish: Seventh. Worst-case finish: Ninth.

What we say: The Saints have arguably been the biggest disappointment of the season. A weakened Geelong was there for the taking on Thursday night, and what did the Saints do? They barely got moving for most of the night. They are no lock to knock over North Melbourne this week, then comes Sydney. They are suddenly in a major fight just to make the wildcard round. What has their off-season recruiting splurge really achieved? Not much to date.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: This was the shocker of the weekend, and sums up where the Giants really are. Internally, they had been frustrated by their lacklustre efforts against weaker sides, and that was reinforced against the Bombers. Terrible. Now they’ll be without injured skipper Toby Greene. We had the Giants finishing as high as seventh. That’s been downgraded to 10th. Ouch.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: Has the bubble burst at Ikon Park? The seven straight wins under caretaker coach Josh Fraser are slowly receding into memory, for two defeats to serious September aspirants have shown where the Blues are really at. Still, they remain in wildcard contention. A win over the Suns at Marvel Stadium this weekend is a must.

Best-case finish: Seventh. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: It’s code red at Arden St. The Kangaroos had club royalty in the stands on Saturday, but blew a promising start against the Demons. That’s three straight defeats, their bid for a wildcard round in peril. Their best-case finish has been re-rated from eighth to 10th, for they have a potentially bruising run home. They need to get the job done against St Kilda this weekend otherwise their campaign is dead.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: We called the Suns a train wreck last week. Now we are not even sure they even were on the final line, such is the bewilderment over eight straight defeats. Yes, eight straight, from a team that should be contending for a flag. The Blues, at Marvel awaits, but we’ll be tipping Fraser’s men to rebound. The Suns face a painstaking post-season review. Ouch.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 15th.

What we say: As we said last week, the Power are a mathematical chance to make the top 10, but there is little hope they will make it. They fought well against the Dockers, but their run home is arduous, the Lions up next.

Best-case finish: 14th. Worst-case finish: 15th.

Not in the running

West Coast (4-14)

The Eagles did well to push the Lions in Perth, and have taken some important strides this season. They would love nothing better than knocking over the Dockers this weekend in the derby, but their best chance of another win in the remaining weeks of the season is against the Tigers.

Essendon (2-16)
Hats off to the Bombers. Last week we wrote their campaign was only going to get worse. But this was a sterling win over the Giants. There could be another to come, against the Power in round 24.

Richmond (2-16)
Have the Tigers improved at all this season? Coach Adem Yze says yes, and he continues to have the backing of club chief Shane Dunne. The ladder, however, tells the true story. They may still be a chance against the Eagles in round 21.

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Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.Connect via X or email.