Thanks to U.S. Presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden and, now, Trump again, China, Russia and India have safely weathered the financial crisis that started in 2008. The crisis, after which the world was never the same again, was a departing gift from their predecessor, President George Bush, the son.

All three of these countries have a strong banking system. They had large foreign reserves when the Bush Recession started. Especially, China was not at the epicenter of the crisis like the U.S. and Europe. They are trade-dependent countries. Before the crisis, their export incomes were around 40% of gross domestic product (GDP). In other words, unlike the U.S., they were not deficit countries. They would buy less and sell more, and if they sold their products, they were happy; if not, they’d lower the price.

Remember, “Made in China” means “dumping” in the retailer lexicon. Yet, if the overall global economy is in trouble, as it is now because of the Hormuz closure, China cannot export. Again, unlike America, China is dependent on peace, not endless wars.

China replaced the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) as America’s Cold War nemesis. President Ronald Reagan faithfully prepared the funeral service for the soul of his favorite “Evil Empire." However, the honor fell, again, to George Bush, the son, who chose China, not the Russian Federation, not as an adversary, but as a candidate to be used against Russia and to prevent it from becoming another USSR.

That is why the U.S. fought against the Europeans to get China into the World Trade Organization. (Americans also study Chinese generals. As Sun Tzu, a military general and philosopher, said, “Keep your friends close; keep your enemies closer.”)

China has quietly established authority over world commerce and the related international organization. When you pay peanuts to your millions of workers, you can do that easily. Noticing all this, Trump tried to impose a trade embargo on China, but Beijing retaliated rapidly, which made Trump regret what he had done. Even if you ban Huawei Android phones, the American people still need $1.99 rechargers for their iPhones.

Then, Trump was inviting China to a “G-2” meeting between the two countries. He ended up asking China to send its navy to the Strait of Hormuz if they want their oil tankers to pass through it.

The Chinese-American relations have never been easy to comprehend, and Trump’s administration (or lack thereof) made it impossible to fathom. But one thing is seemingly apparent even to a layperson like me: The long period of Cold War between the U.S. and China has ended, but it has been replaced with a Cold Peace. 2025 was extraordinary regarding the U.S.-Chinese relations; but the Chinese investment in the U.S. steadily continued despite the uncertainty resulting from Trump’s tempering with the U.S. tariffs, reaching $204 billion since 2005.

The U.S. is not the top recipient of the dollars China earns in the U.S. anymore. They are Brazil and Saudi Arabia. Experts enumerate several technical reasons for that, like American vulnerability to China in supply chains such as pharmaceuticals and American technology loss.

If we read the messages buried between the lines of official addresses, especially Xi’s reference to “Thucydides's Trap," which educated Trump and us all about the inevitable surprises in the bilateral relations when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, we can see that the U.S. and China relations are peaceful but not so warm.

How could they be? Trump’s trade regulations caused disruptions that hurt China, and Beijing blocked exports of key rare earths and critical minerals. Trump and the elders in the room later learned that the Chinese response would hurt the U.S. manufacturing and backpedaled quickly before things escalated into a full trade war.

Chinese officials and trade experts, as well as international analysts, have pointed out that the U.S. was the vulnerable partner in that relationship and Beijing could manipulate Trump’s infantilism with ease. So far, the Chinese government has proved that it decides how much the U.S. can enforce its own national security steps, its export and import controls. In other words, it is Beijing’s decision to say how cold or warm that peaceful period would be.

International experts say that the economic relationship with China has never been so important to the U.S. However, it was the Chinese who saw that the U.S. got them into the WTO not just for love but to control and manipulate. They woke to the fact that Americans would like to have the money the Chinese sellers earn in the U.S. stay in the U.S.

Yanis Varoufakis, a Greek economist, academic, author and my favorite former minister of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, reminded us that you buy whatever you want with “the mighty dollar you make in America” but cannot touch Boeing, or not Microsoft, nor any of the crucial ones in the military-industrial complex.

After all those political mistakes, first riding into that tyrannical and inhuman wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran on the coattails of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, later, noticing the American people, even the MAGA crowd hated him for that, leaving the Zionist in the lurch (I hereby go out on a limb betting that Trump is not going back to Iran war), Trump finally observed the political calendar. Now that he and the GOP have 160 days for the crucial midterm elections, he has to boost exports, raise the employment figures, and reduce the trade deficit.

In order to sell more, the U.S. has to have a weaker dollar. If Trump allows the dollar to go weak, he might lose the monopoly game in international payments. Since he cannot possibly have the cake and eat it too, he has no choice but to kiss Uncle Xi’s hand. He needs to do better than praising his secret rose garden.

Well, if he asked me, I would recommend him to start selling snake oil to China. It originally was a Chinese medication rich in omega-3 fatty acids, which was made from the Chinese water snake. It was believed to decrease the pain of arthritis. The few dollars he earned would be his reward for such remarkable shortsightedness on stilts.