No Todd, returning Hickman, record-chasing Dunlop: TT 2026 is loaded

The 37.73-mile Mountain Course is ready to close again, and the 2026 Isle of Man TT arrives with one of its most intriguing big-bike storylines in years.

The form book has not been torn up completely, but it has certainly been thumbed through and scribbled on. Davey Todd, the only Superbike TT winner from last year after the Senior TT was lost to high winds, has been ruled out. Peter Hickman returns after the kind of 2025 crash that would have made a lesser rider think twice. Michael Dunlop arrives as the most successful TT racer of all time and on the verge of another landmark, while Dean Harrison looks more settled than ever on Honda machinery.

Michael Dunlop kisses the SuperTwin trophy at TT 2025

It all leaves the Superbike and Senior TT contests feeling unusually open. The usual names are still there, but the balance of power is not quite as clear as it was 12 months ago.

MCNews.com.au readers will remember how the 2025 Senior TT was cancelled after gusting winds made conditions too marginal on the Mountain. That meant Todd’s earlier Superbike victory stood as the sole six-lap big-bike result of the week, with the Saltburn rider defeating Michael Dunlop by just 1.2-seconds.

There will be no Todd defence this time. The reigning Superbike TT winner has been declared medically unfit for TT 2026, compounding a brutal few months after injuries sustained at the Daytona 200 also forced him out of the North West 200.

Todd’s absence changes the complexion of TT 2026

Todd’s absence is more than a simple name removed from the entry list. In recent years, he had become one of the few riders genuinely capable of taking the fight to the established TT “aliens” of Hickman, Dunlop and Harrison across the 1000 cc classes.

His 2025 Superbike TT win was not a one-off flash. It was the continuation of a trajectory that had already seen him become a big-bike benchmark at the international road races. But the Daytona injuries have carried through the spring, and after being turned away from the North West 200 on medical grounds, he has now been ruled out of the TT as well.

MCNews covered that blow in detail earlier this month, when Todd was confirmed as a non-starter for TT 2026. It is a bitter pill for Todd, for 8TEN Racing, and for anyone who wanted to see the reigning Superbike TT winner defend his position on the Mountain Course.

He will surely be back. But for 2026, his absence leaves a large hole at the sharp end of the Superbike, Superstock and Senior TT conversations.

Hickman returns to the Mountain

Peter Hickman’s 2026 TT carries a very different kind of intrigue.

Peter Hickman, Davey Todd – 8TEN Racing

Twelve months ago, the outright lap record holder was ruled out of the event after a heavy qualifying crash at Kerrowmoar. MCNews reported at the time that Hickman had crashed heavily on the opening lap of Friday qualifying, with the session red-flagged and the BMW rider airlifted to Noble’s Hospital.

The crash was later traced to an exhaust bracket failure on his BMW M 1000 RR, and Hickman’s recovery was neither quick nor straightforward. Nerve damage in his upper arm left him uncertain for a period about whether he would be able to return at the same level. A successful operation helped quash the worst of those fears, and his recent North West 200 form suggested that the old Hicky pace is still there.

Even so, the TT is the TT. A Supertwin win at the North West 200 is a strong sign, but the Mountain Course asks different questions. Hickman knows those questions better than most, and as a 14-time TT winner with the outright lap record to his name, he remains one of the most formidable riders on the entry list.

He is back with 8TEN BMW machinery in the 1000 cc classes, Trooper Triumphs in Supersport and House of Swan Yamaha machinery in Sportbike. If the shoulder, arm and confidence are all where they need to be, Hickman could easily be a winning factor again.

The question is whether he can be that immediately, or whether TT 2026 becomes the first step in rebuilding towards full Mountain Course sharpness.

Michael Dunlop

Michael Dunlop arrives at TT 2026 as the most successful rider in the event’s history, but the numbers still have not dulled the intrigue.

He now sits on 33 TT victories, having added another four wins in 2025, and is closing on yet another historic marker. As we covered recently, Dunlop is set to become only the seventh rider to reach 100 Isle of Man TT starts when he lines up for the second Supersport race.

The Supersport class again looks like his strongest territory. Dunlop has won all eight Supersport TT races held since the event returned in 2022, and he again has Ducati Panigale V2 machinery beneath him. Dean Harrison has been close, and close often, but Dunlop has repeatedly found the answer when the middleweight bikes head over the Mountain.

Michael Dunlop was on a Hawk Fireblade at the NW200 earlier this month

The biggest unknown remains his Superbike plan.

Dunlop announced during the winter that he intended to race Ducati Panigale V4 R machinery in the 1000 cc classes, but the project has not looked straightforward. At the North West 200, he rolled out on a Hawk Racing Honda Fireblade instead, with MCNews noting during opening practice that Dunlop had parked the Ducati plan for the moment and returned to familiar Honda machinery.

That decision was not especially surprising. Dunlop has never been sentimental about machinery if he feels another bike gives him a better chance of winning, and a spate of swing-arm failures around the world for the V4 R is not something you want on the back of your mind heading into the TT.

Dunlop’s fastest ever TT lap was set on a Honda Fireblade in 2024, and he has also looked comfortable on BMW Superstock machinery. The main intrigue now is what comes out of the MD Racing awning when the big bikes are called.

If the Ducati does appear, it would be one of the stories of the event. If it does not, nobody should pretend to be shocked.

Dean Harrison looks ready to pounce

Dean Harrison may arrive with fewer headlines than Dunlop, Hickman or the absent Todd, but he could be the rider with everything in place.

Dean Harrison – 2025 Supersport TT

Harrison is now in his third season with Honda Racing and looks thoroughly at home on the CBR machinery. Last year, he delivered a Superstock double at the TT, a result that carried real weight given how strong BMW machinery had traditionally been in that class. MCNews’ coverage of Harrison’s second Superstock TT victory in 2025 underlined how decisively he had shifted the conversation.

At the North West 200 this year, he was again consistently fast, repeatedly in the victory fight and often on the back wheel of the eventual winner. Harrison’s frustration was that several races failed to reach the full distance, robbing him of the chance to use his race craft in the closing stages.

That will not matter once the TT starts. The Mountain Course rewards preparation, rhythm and confidence, and Harrison appears to have plenty of all three. If he can transfer his Superstock certainty into the Superbike and Senior TT, this may yet become the year when the image everyone carries home is of the big red Honda driving away over the Mountain.

McGuinness reaches 30 years at the TT

John McGuinness is back for his 30th year at the Isle of Man TT, a statistic that still takes a moment to process.

John McGuinness – 1999 – Vimto 250 Honda

The Morecambe rider made his TT debut in 1996 on a Paul Bird Motorsport 250 cc Aprilia. Three decades later, he returns as a 23-time winner, still a factory Honda rider, and still capable of troubling the top six when everything falls his way.

John McGuinness used the Oulton Park Superstock outing to sharpen up ahead of the North West 200 and Isle of Man TT, setting what he described as his fastest ever lap of the Cheshire circuit.

McGuinness was denied the chance to lead away last year’s Senior TT at number one on the road when the race was cancelled. That disappointment still matters, because the Senior remains the symbolic centrepiece of the fortnight. Had the race gone ahead, perhaps he might have already drawn a line under his TT career.

Instead, he is back for another crack. He has said he will reassess his future after the event, and at 54, the smart money would suggest this could be his final TT. If it is, the place will feel different without him.

John McGuinness

Hutchinson still capable of spoiling the script

Ian Hutchinson has spent much of his career making the unlikely look routine.

The 16-time TT winner has endured injuries that would have ended plenty of careers, and even a stroke, yet he continues to return. This year, he rides a V2 Ducati for Burrows Engineering/RK Racing in Supersport and BMW machinery in the 1000 cc classes.

Ian Hutchinson – 2010 – Padgetts Honda

At the North West 200, he looked more competitive than he has for some time, dicing with the likes of Dunlop, Hickman and Josh Brookes. A podium might still require a little luck, but road racing has never been a sport that follows the tidy logic of spreadsheets.

If the front-runners strike trouble, Hutchinson is more than experienced enough to be there when the opportunity appears.

Brookes and Johnson lead the Aussie interest

Josh Brookes and David Johnson again give TT 2026 a strong Aussie angle.

Brookes starts at number seven and returns with DAO Racing for the Superbike and Superstock classes, riding Honda machinery that appears to suit him far better than the package he wrestled with last year. His 2024 Senior TT podium remains one of the major achievements of his road-racing career, while his 2025 TT campaign with Jackson Racing was much more difficult.

Josh Brookes – 2025 Superstock TT

This time, there are more encouraging signs. At the North West 200, Brookes was immediately more competitive, taking a Superstock podium and then adding another podium in Supersport. MCNews covered both of those results, with Brookes third in the North West 200 Superstock race and again on the rostrum in the Saturday Supersport race.

His Supersport programme is also one of the more interesting technical stories of the meeting. Brookes will ride the Carl Cox Motorsport/Uggly & Co Suzuki GSX-R750, complete with a livery nod to the Pepsi Suzukis raced by Kevin Schwantz and Ron Haslam in 1988. As MCNews outlined in our recent class preview, Brookes and Johnson are both seeded high for the reshaped 2026 Supersport TT, where Next Generation rules have changed the look and feel of the class.

David Johnson lines up on Kawasaki machinery for Platinum Club Racing in Superbike and CD Racing in Supersport. Last year, Davo banked a superb fifth in the Superbike TT, just one season after his frightening crash at the K-Tree in 2024. He backed that up with four more top-15 finishes later in the week, but like everyone else, was denied a final Senior TT outing by the weather.

David Johnson was quickly back into North West 200 mode on the Platinum Club Racing Kawasaki.

At this point in his career, Johnson is arguably at his best on the Superbike. The depth at the front is brutal, but Davo knows how to build a TT week, and another strong top-six result is not out of the question if the Kawasaki package is settled.

Kiwi Mitch Rees also returns for a second year with Padgetts Honda and will be looking to push towards the top 15.

Sportbike transition adds another layer

The old Lightweight/Supertwin landscape is changing.

For 2026, the class has adopted the Sportbike name, allowing machines such as the Triumph Daytona 660, CFMoto 675SR-R and Suzuki GSX-8R to join the established Paton, Aprilia RS 660 and Yamaha R7 machinery. The more expensive twin-cylinder specials have one final year of relevance before the new Sportbike era takes over properly from 2027.

Peter Hickman – Yamaha YZF-R7 – The Supertwin machinery adds a very different soundtrack

That makes this season something of a bridge year. The new-generation bikes will gather vital data, and their riders will learn plenty, but outright victory is still likely to be fought over by the proven packages.

Dunlop, as ever, starts as a major threat on the Paton. When he finishes in this class, he usually wins. Hickman, Paul Jordan and Mike Browne should keep him honest, while Dominic Herbertson’s move onto factory-supported Triumph machinery makes his week particularly interesting, even if an outright podium may be a stretch this time.

Sidecars face a new technical balance

The Sidecar class has also been given an extra point of intrigue for 2026.

Ryan and Callum Crowe dominated last year, and their 121 mph lap record remains one of the most impressive modern sidecar benchmarks. For this season, organisers have introduced engine restriction plates after consultation with 17-time winner Dave Molyneux.

The aim is to reduce airflow, trim power by around 15 per cent, lower top speeds, improve reliability, and, ideally, tighten the field. Whether that brings Ben Birchall and the other leading crews closer to the Crowe brothers remains to be seen.

Ryan and Callum Crowe are a force to be reckoned with – Pictured here in 2024

The Crowes’ lap record may be safe for now, but the racing picture may not be as predictable as it looked 12 months ago.

Multiple world champion and TT winner Tim Reeves has withdrawn late from the event, with the reasons not yet entirely clear. That removes another major name from the class and adds to the sense that the opening sidecar session will be watched very closely.

One newcomer, plenty of unknowns

The newcomers will be first onto the course for the speed-controlled lap, with Northern Ireland’s Gary McCoy the only solo course novice this year.

There are also several riders graduating from the Manx Grand Prix. They may be TT newcomers on paper, but they are not strangers to the Mountain Course, and that distinction matters. The first trip away down Bray Hill at the TT is still something else entirely, but previous Manx GP experience gives those riders a foundation that a true first-timer simply does not have.

The forecast for the early part of the week looks encouraging, and after a couple of difficult years, everyone involved will be hoping the event gets a clean run.

There are plenty of questions to answer. Can Hickman return at winning pace? Can Harrison make the Superbike and Senior TT his own? What will Dunlop actually choose for the big-bike races? Can Brookes or Johnson give the Australian audience something substantial to cheer? And how different will the Sidecar and Sportbike pictures look once the first laps are in the books?

The TT rarely gives up those answers early. That is part of the appeal.

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Related MCNews.com.au TT reading

• Davey Todd ruled out of 2026 Isle of Man TT
• Michael Dunlop and the road to 100 Isle of Man TT starts
• Recapping the 2025 Isle of Man TT: Senior cancelled, injuries and SuperTwin furore
• Peter Hickman crash among key talking points from 2025 TT qualifying
• Johnson and Brookes carry Aussie hopes into 2026 Supersport TT shake-up
• 2026 North West 200 preview: Brookes and Johnson headline Aussie interest
• Stacey claims debut NW200 Superstock win with Brookes on podium
• Dunlop tops Saturday’s NW200 Supersport race with Brookes third