Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthis to prepare to disrupt the Red Sea oil route if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure. Missiles and drones have reportedly been deployed near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with Houthi forces awaiting an order (reportedly from the IRGC itself) to begin attacks on shipping as of late Thursday. This is a pincer movement by Tehran on the oil routes, building on Hormuz leverage by adding the Houthis into the mix to threaten the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait that the Saudis now rely on for the bulk of their exports.

On July 13, Yemeni government forces struck the runway at Sanaa International Airport to prevent the landing of an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation. The Houthis responded with ballistic missiles and drones against Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia, breaking the relative calm that had held since the 2022 truce. 

On July 16, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi warned that Saudi oil facilities, ports, airports and other critical infrastructure would become missile and drone targets if Riyadh refused to cease and desist. 

This is the breakdown in relations in the Gulf that Iran was waiting for (and Israel, as well). It’s the perfect opportunity for an additional justification of its maritime pincer movement, not solely as a response to Trump’s threats to its power plants and bridges. 

For the Saudis, it means a threat to the 70% of…