Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the agency, said "we're already on the brink of this summer's first heatwave", adding that conditions would be more extreme than is typical for mid-June.

Forecasts released on Wednesday indicate average temperatures near 28°C over the period. Del Campo described it as an "extraordinary episode" and said the heat would be the most intense recorded for these dates since 1950.

The agency said 2026 has so far been "extremely warm", with an average temperature of 14°C, around 1.6°C above normal.

Del Campo explained that spring began with a "normal" March, followed by an "extremely warm" April that brought record-breaking heat. May was more irregular: it started with a cool spell lasting around 18 days, including snowfall at low altitudes, before temperatures rose sharply to summer-like levels.

He said the season had become the second-warmest spring on record, behind only 2023.

A hot summer

Looking ahead, AEMET expects June, July and August to be warmer than normal across Spain, with a 50 to 60 per cent probability, though it cannot yet say how high temperatures might peak. The agency also warned that heatwaves are likely throughout the summer.

Del Campo also added that global warming is now a confirmed trend. Spain hasn't recorded a cold season since 2018, and every recent season has come in warmer than normal.

On rainfall, he said 2026 began as a wet year, with a run of storms in January making it the wettest start to a year in 47 years. Conditions then shifted sharply, and spring has since been dry, with rainfall of around 134 litres per square metre, roughly 25 per cent below average.

He added that rainfall is increasingly concentrated into short bursts, while dry spells are lasting longer.