• ASX 200: flat to 8,808points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: +0.2% to 69.29 US cents
• Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.7%, KOSPI +0.8%
• Wall Street: S&P500 -0.8%, Dow -0.3%
• Europe: FTSE flat at 10,498 points
• Spot gold: +0.7% to $US4,026/ounce
• Oil: Brent futures +1.8% to $US84.78/barrel, WTI futures +1.8% to $U79.61/barrel
• Iron ore: +1% to $US99.45/tonne
• Bitcoin: +0.8% to $US62,636

Prices current at around 4:26pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

We'll end our markets blog coverage here and thank you for staying with us.

Don't forget to catch The Business on ABC News at 8:44pm, after the late news on ABC TV, and any time on ABC iview, if you miss anything.

As always, our team will be back on deck tomorrow morning with the latest.

Until then, take care!

The ASX 200 has finished the day flat, staying unchanged at 8,808 points.

Over the last five days, the index has been virtually unchanged but is currently 4.3% below its 52-week high.

When looking at the sectors, Energy was at the top, up 2%, followed by Utilities, up 1.3% and then Materials, up 0.5%.

Real Estate finished at the bottom, down 1.4%, followed by Consumer Non-Cyclicals, down 0.9%, and then Financials, down 0.8%.

Overall, the market had 90 stocks gaining, 8 unchanged and 102 in the red.

Among companies, the top mover was Light & Wonder Inc, up 7.9%, followed by Seek, up 4.7%.

Kingsgate Consolidated was the biggest laggard, down 15.9%, followed by Silex Systems, down 10.3%.

The Australian dollar is up 0.2% at 69.29 US cents.

Business conditions held steady in June, but rising interest rates is still likely, according to CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun.

This follows the findings of the NAB June Monthly Business Survey that Business conditions were flat at 3 index points for the third consecutive month but remain around 5pts lower in trend terms than the start of 2026.

Mr Colhoun added that, however, the survey points to a growing multi-speed economy.

"With sectors such as construction and mining benefiting while manufacturing, retail and wholesale continue to feel the effects of higher interest rates and energy costs," he said.

"Despite easing retail prices, cost pressures remain elevated; I believe the risk is still for interest rates to rise later this year or early next year, rather than fall."

The Finance Sector Union (FSU) has called on the federal government to extend the existing moratorium on regional branch closures to 2030 across all banks.

This follows the government's response to a Senate inquiry into regional banking.

In its response, the government backed only two of the eight recommendations and didn't commit to extending a moratorium on the closure of regional bank branches beyond July 2027.

FSU national president Wendy Streets said the major banks’ purge of branches across regional and metro Australia had devastated communities.

"Closures result in the loss of residents and businesses and make life harder for those who stay," Ms Streets said.

"It's critical that our government holds employers accountable for providing essential banking services.

"Banks must provide workers with guaranteed job security, and time to retrain, be redeployed, and transition into new roles."

The Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) is seeking public comment on how the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive will work in practice.

The incentive, as part of the Australian Government’s Future Made in Australia plan, will be available from July 1, 2027.

The DISR says it will support the establishment and expansion of critical minerals processing and refining in Australia.

Eligible companies will be able to claim a tax offset on the cost of processing and refining critical minerals in Australia, it says.

Submissions open until August 11, 2026.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to make a major speech tomorrow about how the government is approaching AI and its rules for companies looking to expand to Australia.

Internal government documents obtained by the ABC under freedom of information laws show why Mr Albanese believes Australia has leverage.

ABC national AI and technology reporter Cam Wilson is reporting.

With one hour left in the trading day, let's take a look at the top and bottom movers.

The top movers were,

• Light & Wonder Inc, +7.2%
• Karoon Energy, +4.8%
• Seek, +4.7%
• Domino's Pizza, +4.7%
• Iperionx Ltd, +4.4%

And the bottom movers were,

• Kingsgate Consolidated, -14%
• Silex Systems, -8.8%
• Paladin Energy, -6%
• Deep Yellow, -5.2%
• Metcash Ltd, -4.2%

The price of crude oil has spiked, again.

US President Donald Trump has posted on social media, saying the US will charge a 20% fee on cargo travelling through the contested Strait of Hormuz.

But why is the price of oil still not as high as many would expect? And what economic costs remain behind a ceasefire that appears to have effectively collapsed?

In the latest episode of ABC Business Daily, Daniel Ziffer and ABC chief business correspondent Ian Verrender break it all down.

US consumer inflation likely slowed in June, but that would probably offer little comfort to households or rule out an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year, with the conflict in the Middle East still unresolved.

The anticipated moderation in the Consumer Price Index would largely reflect a retreat in petrol prices from multi-year highs as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran took hold last month. That truce, however, collapsed last week after commercial tankers came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

"The pain level just went down from 10 to nine, consumers are still in a lot of pain," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College.

"We're not out of the woods yet."

The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the ⁠June meeting, ​though new projections revealed a growing sentiment around a likely rate ​hike in 2026.

Financial markets were pricing in a roughly 50.8% chance of the Fed raising borrowing costs at its September 15-16 policy meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Reporting with Reuters

Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar has joined The Business, saying Telstra can afford to be generous and should be fair in its compensation to businesses affected by last week's network outage.

Let's take a look.

• ASX 200: -0.5% to 8,763points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: +0.2% to 69.29 US cents
• Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng -0.7%, KOSPI -2.8%
• Wall Street: S&P500 -0.8%, Dow -0.3%, Nasdaq -1.5%
• Europe: FTSE flat at 10,498 points
• Spot gold: +0.4% to $US4,015/ounce
• Oil: Brent futures +1.9% to $US84.87/barrel, WTI futures +2.2% to $U79.87/barrel
• Iron ore: +0.7% to $US99.15/tonne
• Bitcoin: +0.5% to $US62,465

Prices current at around 1:48pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

China's iron ore imports in June rose by 15% from the month before to a six-month high, as miners increased shipments to achieve quarterly guidance and as lower prices sparked more buying among steelmakers and traders.

Iron ore exports from major suppliers Australia and Brazil jumped by 4.3% month-on-month in late June, data from shipping tracking agency Kpler showed.

The world's largest iron ore consumer imported 112.69 million metric tonnes of the key steelmaking ingredient last month, up 6.4% from the year before and the highest since December, data from the country's General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday.

"Shipments increased last month as some miners ramped up efforts to meet quarterly guidance and as some mines boosted output," said Qingwei Xie, an analyst at consultancy Shanghai Metals Market.

China's iron ore imports totalled 628.87 million tonnes between January and June, an annual rise of 6.3%.

Reporting with Reuters

Oil price is now up roughly 10% since late afternoon trade on Monday AEST to $US84.19 a barrel.

Analysts say the oil price could rise further as global supplies reach critically low levels, with reserves already drawn down.

ABC business correspondent David Taylor has more.

The confidence and cost growth components of the survey continued to recover in June, according to the NAB Monthly Business Survey.

Business confidence rose 9pts to -5 index points, the survey finds. Despite remaining negative, it has now recovered much of the fall seen in March.

Business conditions were flat at 3 index points for the third consecutive month but remain around 5pts lower in trend terms than the start of 2026.

Capacity utilisation was stable in June, but has eased by around 1ppt over H1 2026. It remained slightly above its long-run average, NAB said.

"This should allow the central bank time to assess economic developments while leaving the policy rate stable through H2 2026," it said.

Meanwhile, product price growth is back to its February level and retail prices declined for the first time in 7 years, the survey shows.

Final product price growth also edged down to 0.6% in the month, less than half the pace observed in April, the survey noted.

"Final prices in all industries except wholesale are now back to growing at around the same pace or slower than they were at the start of the year, suggesting inflationary pressures have eased, alongside the fallback in energy and other affected prices."

You can read the full report here.

The Energy sector led the Australian market, up 1.8%, following the US's renewed strikes on Iran.

Karoon Energy soared 5.7%, Woodside Energy rose 3.3%, and Beach Energy gained 2.3%.

Utilities also rose 1.1%, and Consumer Cyclicals climbed 0.3%

Meanwhile, Consumer Non-Cyclicals was the biggest laggard, falling 1%, followed by Financials and Real Estate, down 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

All the Big Four banks lost more than 1%. ANZ fell 1.5%, NAB and Westpac slid 1.4%, and CBA declined 1.1%.

The time to buy a dwelling index rose 5.3% but still remained very pessimistic at 85.4 points, according to Cameron Kusher, chief economist at Herron Todd White.

Mr Kusher said new figures showed Australians were becoming more accepting of lower house prices as affordability pressures persist, while remaining cautious about the broader economic outlook.

"I believe many would-be buyers will expect prices to fall further and won't be in a rush to purchase unless there is the right property available at an appealing price," he said.

The House Price Expectations Index fell 8% to a 3-year low, with declines in every state, Mr Kusher added.

Australia's lamb exports to the US have broken records in recent years and have remained relatively stable despite high prices and uncertainty around tariffs.

There are signs that lamb is becoming an increasingly popular luxury option for American consumers.

Read more on the coverage by Selina Green and Cassandra Hough.

National business loan demand is trailing below the 12-month average by +3.8% year-on-year, according to Equifax's June Business Market Pulse.

Under the surface, large businesses are still expanding, up 7.8% yoy, while SME loan growth has flattened to a near halt at just 0.5%, the data show.

In the Services sector, Equifax reports that large businesses saw asset finance demand surge by 17.1% yoy, while small businesses in the same sector saw demand plunge by 13.7%.

Meanwhile, large businesses are still upgrading equipment by +1.7% yoy nationally, while SMEs have cut asset finance by -5.6%, signalling a pause on fleet and machinery upgrades, Equifax says.

Brad Walters, Equifax's general manager of commercial, said: "We continue to see the pressure of SMEs play out in their personal mortgages and loans, evidenced by higher delinquency rates than your average mum and dad."

Westpac has said the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.1% to 83.9 in July from 80.6 in June.

Pessimism still dominates; however, fuel price pressures and fears of rate rises are moderating, the index shows.

Matthew Hassan, the head of Australian macro-forecasting at Westpac, said despite the gain, sentiment remained deeply pessimistic.

"At 83.9, the latest Index read is still in the bottom 10% of results over the 50-year history of the survey.

"Some of the July improvement looks to be relief that 'worst case' scenarios — around energy prices, interest rates and jobs — are not playing out."

Mr Hassan added that family finances were clearly under intense pressure and the outlook was uncertain.

"Sentiment also remains hostage to developments abroad, with daily responses showing a significant weakening as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated over the course of the survey week.