Biological invasions are considered the second-greatest threat to global biodiversity. In China, nature reserves are crucial in terms of biodiversity conservation, but many are at high risk of biological invasion. However, as climate change progresses, the nature reserve invasion risk posed by invasive alien plants (IAPs) remains unclear. Here, we compiled an inventory of 402 IAPs with over 120,000 occurrences to investigate IAP distribution patterns and the potential invasion risks in China’s nature reserves under current and future climate scenarios. We also analyzed the key environmental and socioeconomic factors influencing IAP distribution. Our results indicate that approximately 63% of national nature reserves and 38% of provincial nature reserves contain IAPs. Most nature reserves with high numbers of IAPs are located in South, East, Southwest, and Central China. In addition, up to 80% of national nature reserves and 73% of provincial nature reserves are highly vulnerable, with IAP records within nature reserves or outer 5 km buffer areas. Under current and future climate scenarios, approximately 85% of China’s nature reserves contain suitable habitats for IAPs, representing a 38% increase compared to the recorded distribution. The predicted IAP distribution pattern generally shows a decreasing trend from the southeast to northwest. Population density, elevation, area, year of establishment, and temperature annual range (BIO7) significantly affect IAP richness in nature reserves. Under future climate scenarios, China’s nature reserves will be confronted with a greater risk of IAP invasion. Our findings can work as fundamental material when managing IAPs in nature reserves, providing valuable insights for targeted strategies and improving the protective effectiveness of nature reserves in China.
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