Australia is not usually where the world’s biggest watch auction stories happen. Geneva gets them. Hong Kong gets them. New York almost always gets them.

This time, Sydney might.

A rare Rolex Rainbow Daytona is set to feature in First State Auctions’ upcoming luxury watch sale, with specialists predicting it could become the most expensive watch ever sold at an Australian auction.

The estimate is in excess of $500,000, which would comfortably clear the current local record for a wristwatch. That’s well beyond what most collectors will spend over a lifetime of buying watches.

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The Rolex Everyone Wants But Almost Nobody Gets

Known as the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona Ref. 126598 RBOW, the Rainbow Daytona has become one of the brand’s hardest watches to buy.

When Rolex introduced the Rainbow Daytona more than a decade ago, plenty of traditional collectors thought it was too loud, too colourful and a long way from the motorsport roots that made the Daytona famous.

Time changed that.

Rolex’s painstaking process of matching dozens of natural coloured sapphires, combined with extremely limited production and growing demand from collectors, turned it into one of the brand’s most desirable modern watches.

Today, simply getting offered one at retail is almost impossible.. Its signature rainbow bezel uses 36 perfectly matched baguette-cut sapphires arranged in a seamless colour gradient, while another 11 sapphires sit on the dial as hour markers. Finding gemstones that meet Rolex’s standards is so difficult that production remains exceptionally limited.

A new example retails for $324,700, but actually buying one is another story entirely. Allocations are typically reserved for Rolex’s biggest VIP clients, with demand far exceeding supply.

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Why This Auction Is Different For Australia

The sale includes 28 watches with a combined estimate above $2 million, but specialists expect roughly a quarter of that total to come from this single piece, which gives a reasonable sense of how the Rainbow Daytona sits relative to everything else in the room.

Its owner base has not hurt the watch’s profile either. Mark Wahlberg, Kevin Hart, John Mayer, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane have all been spotted wearing one, which is the kind of list that pulls in buyers who might not otherwise be following auction catalogues.

What makes an Australian result genuinely interesting is how rarely pieces at this level surface here rather than being consigned directly to Geneva or Hong Kong.

The collector infrastructure exists, but the depth of competition for a single lot like this is harder to predict. Whether it breaks the record will come down to one thing. How many collectors decide they simply cannot let someone else take it home when bidding opens on July 12.

Opportunities like this rarely come to Australia. Neither do Rainbow Daytonas.

Register to bid now.