Powerful typhoon Bavi in the West Pacific draws a part of the monsoon flows to itself, aiding the change in rainfall pattern over India, with heavier rains starting to shift to northern parts. | Photo Credit: www.windy.com

A recurving well-marked low-pressure area over north-west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south-west Uttar Pradesh may shift the axis of heavy rain from Central and West India towards the East and North-East over the next few days. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the system retained its intensity for a second successive day on Wednesday and is expected to drift a while before taking a decisive turn to north-east. 

Its projected track suggests the monsoon’s rain-bearing engine is beginning to migrate, offering a gradual respite to flood-hit parts of Central India while opening up a fresh spell of heavy rain farther east. The redrawing of the rain map is prompted also by West Pacific Typhoon Bavi from thousands of kilometres away.

Tussle for moisture

It is diverting the monsoon flows as the two weather systems compete for moisture from the same warm oceanic reservoir. Although Bavi has weakened a notch to a Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, it remains a powerful cyclone as it sweeps past the Philippines on course for Taiwan and southern China.

Back home, before beginning its northeastward sweep, the well-marked low delivered another round of punishing rain across West and and Central India. Extremely heavy rainfall fell overnight over Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and South Interior Karnataka, while very heavy falls of 12-20 cm lashed Marathwada, Saurashtra and Kutch, Madhya Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, Bihar, Meghalaya and Tripura.

Extreme heavy rain

Heavy rainfall of 7-11 cm spread across East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe, North Interior Karnataka, and hills of West Bengal and Sikkim. The expanding rain footprint already betrays the monsoon’s changing orientation, with activity becoming increasingly concentrated over North-West, East and North-East India.

The seasonal monsoon trough now extends from north-west Rajasthan to north-east Bangladesh, passing through the centre of the well-marked low. An equally significant development is at its eastern end. After remaining anchored over the Bay for several days, the trough has lifted entirely onto land, reflecting the absence of a cyclonic circulation or low-pressure area over the Bay to hold it offshore.

Fresh ‘low’ in a week

Forecasters expect this to be a temporary phase. Numerical guidance indicates a fresh low-pressure area could emerge over the Bay within the next seven to eight days, potentially restoring the trough to its more familiar sea-linked configuration and injecting fresh vigour into the monsoon over East and North-East India.

A secondary trough also stretches from the north-east Arabian Sea to Sikkim across Gujarat, the well-marked low, south-east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Such secondary troughs are characteristic of an active monsoon phase, though this feature is expected to weaken as the parent low accelerates towards the north-east.

Rain for North-West

Widespread to fairly widespread rainfall over much of North-West India during the next few days, covering Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Uttarakhand.

Rainfall activity will simultaneously gather momentum over East and North-East India as the recurving low pulls the monsoon trough in its wake. While showers will continue over parts of Central India and the Peninsula, the region is likely to witness a gradual easing of the intense rainfall that has persisted over the past several days.

Typical pattern

The evolving weather pattern underscores monsoon’s characteristic mobility pattern. Rather than weakening, the rain belt is simply pivoting from the saturated heartland towards the Indo-Gangetic plains and the eastern and north-eastern States, where the next phase of the season is poised to unfold. 

Published on July 8, 2026