For Vice President JD Vance, negotiations to end the war with Iran are not merely a critical policy challenge, they are an audition.

The ultimate outcome of the Trump administration's handling of ongoing talks with Iranian leaders will almost certainly top the list of most important factors shaping the way voters evaluate Vance as a future president. But, until that time, the jury is still out.

Indeed, that is the only rational position to have about Vance and his political future, no matter how unsatisfying that sounds in our black and white, all or nothing, love 'em or hate 'em culture.

The truth is Vance has been on the national stage for less than three years. He is, politically speaking, still being introduced. His best-selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy was published a decade ago, but he only entered public life as a junior senator from Ohio in 2023.

Since then, some things have gone well.

Others… less so.

Vance has appeared more comfortable in high-pressure settings than many expected, demonstrating discipline, becoming an effective messenger for administration policies and subtly adjusting his personal presentation and communication style.

He has also forged relationships across different factions of the Republican coalition, largely avoiding the kinds of self-inflicted mistakes that have damaged previous vice presidents.

His admirers perceive a gifted political talent: intellectually serious, unusually articulate, deeply rooted in the populist realignment that has transformed the Republican Party and capable of carrying that movement into a new generation.

They see someone who understands the anxieties of working-class voters, who can speak fluently about culture and economics and who possesses something increasingly rare in modern politics: a coherent worldview, conversationally and substantively expressed, reassuringly consistent.

Perhaps most consequentially, Vance seems to regard his role with great weight and intent. Those close to him insist that doing the job well matters more to him than calculating his next political move.

His detractors perceive something else entirely: a schemer whose positions have shifted dramatically, whose explanations often seem conveniently timed, and whose ease with political combat sometimes crosses into aggression and fable.

To them, the current national debate over the Iran deal reinforces their concerns about his ideology, judgment and credibility.

Vance's favorability numbers remain uneven to poor. Critics continue to highlight his critical, pre-2024 statements about Trump. He has not yet shed the ineffable husk of otherness that some find off-putting and enigmatic and questions persist about whether his appeal extends beyond the coalition that already supports the president. Some voters still feel they do not know him well enough to trust him with the country's highest office, which brings us back to Iran.

A successful negotiation that stands the test of time (or at least through November 7, 2028) would strengthen the argument that he possesses both ideological gravity and governing competence. Failure, naturally, would fuel precisely the opposite conclusion.

That may sound unfair. It probably is. No single man can control the future. But politics, like life, can be unfair.

Large foreign-policy events frequently become shorthand for larger judgments. Voters remember outcomes more than process, results more than arguments. A few years from now, Americans will not recall every speech, interview, or policy paper. They will have a sense of whether the Iran strategy worked.

Additionally, history suggests that vice presidents rarely receive a fair hearing – from the public or the powerful. It is said that the second-in-command inherits all the president's enemies and, at best, half his friends.

That is the gauntlet through which every Veep must pass to reach the top job, even as the position, paradoxically, provides the most historically reliable springboard.

George HW Bush, vice president to Ronald Reagan, endured years of criticism before becoming president. Dan Quayle, VP to HW Bush, a smart and accomplished politician in his own right, became a national punchline.

Al Gore, a substantive second, spent much of his vice presidency being caricatured. Dick Cheney was demonized by opponents and viewed by many with suspicion. Joe Biden accumulated decades of mockery before eventually winning the presidency.

And Kamala Harris… well, we know what happened with her.

Vance's situation may be even more complicated than is typically the case, as he faces the most discerning critic: President Donald Trump.

Forty-seven remains a relentless evaluator of status, success, style, physical appeal and potential. He sizes up everyone around him: allies, rivals, Cabinet members, television hosts, even members of his own family.

Reports from Trump's inner circle suggest he respects Vance's intelligence and political utility, frets about the shortcomings of Vance's aesthetic and brand and acknowledges the different strengths and personal polish of Vance's purported rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump's catalogue of concerns may be right or wrong. But it hardly matters. Because Vance is not, has not been, and likely never will be running against Marco Rubio. He is running against himself. Against the doubts, expectations and competing images that Americans project onto him.

Of course, as I have written before, it remains possible that Vance will not run at all. He and Usha Vance are expecting their fourth child this summer. He is a young man with young children, a dedicated spouse and hands-on father, a 21st century dad. Presidential campaigns extract tremendous personal costs from candidates and families alike.

But if Vance does run, history suggests he would begin as the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican nominee.

Usha Vance may prove to be a significant asset in that effort. Her poise, intellect and biography would broaden the picture many voters have of her husband. Every successful politician profits from a compelling partner. Vance may gain more than most. 

And weighed against the baggage, vice presidents still have advantages.

Incumbent parties usually rally around them. Donors and activists know them. Their campaign infrastructure already, in large part, exists.

Most of all, the heavy betting is that he would earn Trump's all-powerful endorsement. To support a candidate other than his own hand-picked running mate would, in the end, clash with Trump's psyche.

The general-election picture is also not obviously unfavorable. The Democratic bench remains unsettled. The Electoral College map that benefited Trump could serve another Republican nominee.

Under the right circumstances, Vance could have a decent – or perhaps very good –chance of succeeding his boss.