Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps   

Demand for cooling equipment before summer began fueled growth for both a/cs and heat pumps. A/Cs saw a strong rebound from the same time last year, outpacing heat pumps. 

Comparing April 2026 to April 2025 shows the following:  

• Air conditioners and heat pumps: 837,098 units, up 5.1% from 796,279 

• Air conditioners only: 456,210 units, up 8% from 422,275 

• Heat Pumps only: 380,888 units, up 1.8% from 374,004 

Even with these increases, the overall cooling market is sluggish, with heat pumps being the only category growing in April. Even then, it was incremental. The following are the year-to-date shipments for April 2026 compared to April 2025. 

• Air conditioner units and air-source heat pumps: 2.77 million, down 3.5% compared to 2.87 million  

• Air conditioners only: 1.43 million, down 7.5% from 1.55 million 

• Heat pumps only: 1.34 million, up 1.8% from 1.33 million 

Warm-Air Furnaces   

Shipment numbers for gas furnaces saw modest declines in April. Meanwhile, oil furnace shipments blew up with a 32% increase from April 2025.   

• Gas warm-air furnaces: 251,401, down 4.9% from 264,259 

• Oil warm-air furnaces: 2,477, up 32.1% from 1,875 

Similar increases and decreases were seen when comparing April’s year-to-date totals with those of April 2025:   

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• Gas warm-air furnaces: 966,919, down 11.6% from1.09 million 

• Oil warm-air furnaces: 10,919, up 11.4% from 9,799 

Residential Storage Water Heaters    

Gas and electric water heaters overall declined in April 2026 compared to the same period last year: 

• Residential gas storage water heaters: 361,801, down 1.6% from 367,604 

• Residential electric storage water heaters: 430,591, down 4.3% from 450,168 

Overall, residential electric heaters continue to surpass oil units, though both oil and electric units experienced declines compared to April 2025’s year-to-date totals: 

• Residential gas storage water heaters: 1.44 million, down 6.2% from 1.54 million  

• Residential electric storage water heaters: 1.66 million, down 6.4% from 1.77 million  

When viewing overall shipment data for the first quarter of 2026 (January-March), heat pumps grew by 0.9% in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025. While it may not be much, it’s the only category that grew during this period. 

Gas furnaces saw the biggest drop at 13.7% in the same period. Central a/c dropped by 13.4%. Both electric and gas water heaters were down by at least 7%. This is likely caused by the 2025 refrigerant transition creating supply chain strains, all while contractors navigate the labyrinth of A2L regulations. 

April Trends from the Past Decade 

AHRI’s shipment data goes back to 2016. In those 10 years, heat pumps have proven to be a long-term growth strategy, approaching half of all April cooling equipment shipments. 

In April 2016, heat pumps made up 30.7% of combined a/c and heat pump shipments. In April 2026, that percentage jumped to 45.5%. This is slightly below April 2025, when heat pumps were 47%, but still above the 2016 to 2020 percentages. 

Heat pump-only shipments in April 2016 were at 195,799. In April 2026, 380,888 units were shipped, a 94.5% increase. 

On the heating side, gas furnace shipments were 185,253 in April 2016 and increased to 251,401 in April 2026, up 35.7%. However, as stated above, they fell nearly 5% from April 2025, meaning they are still viable, but not as predictable as in the past. 

For water heaters, electric rose from 340,855 in April 2016 to 430,591 in April 2026, up 26.3%. They’ve quietly beaten gas water heaters in the last decade, representing 48.2% of April residential water heater shipments in April 2016. As of last April, they were 54.3% of all shipments. 

Ongoing Price Increases 

Some of the declines are in part due to the construction industry, let alone HVACR, struggling against price increases. Several HVACR manufacturers announced price hikes this month, with some reaching double-digit percentage increases. 

Construction input prices increased 2.6% in May compared to the previous month, according to the latest analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data by the Associated Builders and Contractors. 

“Construction input prices surged again in May and are now up nearly 10% year over year,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu in a written statement. “Oil prices, pushed higher by the ongoing Iran conflict, made a significant contribution to the rise in overall materials prices, yet the greater concern is the continuing price growth in tariff-affected inputs like iron, steel and copper.” 

Relief on the residential side is incoming. As of June 8, Section 232 tariffs, which impact materials like steel and aluminum, have been reduced from 25% to 15% for derivative products related to HVAC systems and components. The reduction will last until 2027, with savings to consumers estimated to be $2.3 billion, according to Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. 

Additional tariff relief remains uncertain. On June 11, a U.S. appeals court extended a block on the U.S. trade court’s decision against Trump’s 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The move allows the tariffs to remain in place for three importers for whom the U.S. Trade Court decision granted relief against those duties. 

These 10% tariffs were put in place after the Supreme Court determined Trump exceeded his authority in issuing his “Liberation Day” tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.