Russia is preparing a 'military provocation' of NATO states as Putin's defence against Ukraine continues to weaken, European spies have said. Ukrainian drone attacks have increasingly targeted the infrastructure underpinning Russia's war effort, with Putin even forced to massively scale back his Red Square military parade this year for fear of it being attacked by Kyiv's drones. As Putin comes under pressure, he last week threatened 'nuclear strikes with catastrophic consequences' if the West refuses to accept his demands over Ukraine. Latvian intelligence told the Guardian: 'We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.' However, it would not be a full scale attack. A senior political source from another NATO member said 'we are picking up intelligence' that the Russian leader was 'planning something against the Baltic states'. They added that Putin may be willing to test US support for NATO's smallest countries like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Latvian intelligence reportedly said Russia was considering 'hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.'

Last week Putin stopped operating his drone relay stations in Belarus after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to attack them. He gave Russia a one week warning on Friday as he said the equipment was helping Russia conduct drone strikes against them. Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the Chatham House thinktank, said: 'Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation [spreading the conflict to other countries] or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose.'

Kyiv has stepped up its drone strikes on Russia in recent months, hitting oil refineries that fund Moscow's war chest. According to analysts, Russia's outdated air defence network, which was designed to counter aircraft and conventional missiles, has struggled to adapt to Ukraine's long-range drones. Earlier this month, Ukraine also staged a massive attack on a major oil port in St Petersburg just hours before the opening of Putin's flagship international investment summit. Kyiv has repeatedly struck refineries, oil terminals, pumping stations and export facilities deep inside Russian territory.

Among the most significant targets were the NORSI refinery near Nizhny Novgorod, Russia's fourth largest refinery with capacity to process 16 million metric tonnes of oil annually. It suspended operations on April 5 following a drone attack. The Moscow refinery was also hit on May 19, and the Ryazan refinery on the 15th, which accounts for almost five per cent of Russia's refining volumes. The Perm refinery, which processed around 12.6 million metric tonnes of oil in 2024, halted processing on May 7 after a drone attack caused a fire and damaged equipment. The cumulative effect has been to place increasing strain on Russia's energy sector, which remains the primary source of funding for the Kremlin's war machine.