The first predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season have been revealed, and forecasters warn that several major storms could strike the US. Meteorologists at AccuWeather said on Wednesday that they expect between 11 and 16 named storms to form in 2026, with as many as five landing a direct hit on the US East Coast or Gulf states. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said: 'It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast.'

Overall, between four and seven hurricanes are predicted to develop when the season starts on June 1, which would be at or below average compared to the typical hurricane season over the last three decades. Meteorologists are forecasting a near- to below-historical-average season in 2026, but warned the risk of US impacts remains elevated. The AccuWeather team urged Americans, particularly in Virginia , the Carolinas, Florida , Alabama , Mississippi and Louisiana , to start preparing for potentially devastating weather, as even a small number of hurricanes could be deadly and cause billions of dollars in damage.

'There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,' DaSilva warned. 'Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.' Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have urged residents at the highest risk of being in the path of hurricanes to begin stocking up on emergency supplies, including gas, food, water and other essentials, before long lines form during an actual emergency. Two to four major hurricanes are expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean between June and the end of November, meaning these storms will be Category 3 or stronger, with winds exceeding 111 mph and the potential to cause major property damage.

The new prediction mirrors last year's hurricane season, when 14 named storms developed in the Atlantic, four became major hurricanes and four storms made landfall in the US. No hurricanes made landfall in 2025. The AccuWeather prediction model specifically warned of a high risk coming from so-called 'homegrown development' storms in June and July. Unlike most hurricanes that start far out in the Atlantic, near Africa, these storms form much closer to the US, usually right in the Gulf of America, the western Caribbean or just off the East Coast. Homegrown development storms typically form when a regular weather system that drifts away from land stalls over very warm ocean water. The warm water then 'transforms' that system into a tropical depression, tropical storm or even a hurricane.

Meteorologists warned that these potential named storms forming right off the US coast will give millions of people throughout the Southeast less than two days to prepare or evacuate. In comparison, hurricanes that develop far out in the Atlantic or closer to Africa are expected to take anywhere from one to two weeks to reach the US coastline. DaSilva noted that a major force fueling the potential spike in 'homegrown development' storms this year is very warm Atlantic waters just off the East Coast from the Carolinas to Florida and throughout the Gulf and Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclones use the heat from warm ocean waters to build their giant cores, potentially building from disorganized thunderstorms into hurricanes with sustained winds of more than 75 mph in just hours.

'That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,' DaSilva explained in a statement . 'As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.' The major factor that will likely keep this hurricane season in check is the development of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. This natural weather pattern forms every few years, causing a large area of the Pacific near the equator to get warmer than normal. The phenomenon also creates stronger wind shear high up in the atmosphere over the Atlantic, which tends to act like a pair of scissors cutting across the top of developing hurricanes, ripping them apart before they can grow into major storms. El Niño also brings more sinking and stable air over the Atlantic, which is the opposite of what hurricanes need to form. When air is sinking, it acts like a heavy blanket that smothers Atlantic weather systems and keeps them as disorganized rainstorms.

In 2025, NOAA predicted that as many as 19 named storms would form in the Atlantic, with as many as ten becoming hurricanes. Those figures ended up being overestimated, as only five storms officially reached hurricane strength - Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda and Melissa. However, three of these storms, Erin, Humberto and Melissa, reached Category 5 strength, the most dangerous level of hurricane measured, with sustained winds exceeding 157 mph . According to the National Hurricane Center, 125 people throughout the Atlantic basin died during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with most of the fatalities occurring in the Caribbean during Hurricane Melissa. Over $500million in damage was suffered in the US due to the four direct hits the country sustained last year. Most of the damage took place in North Carolina during Tropical Storm Chantal. While the overall number of potential US strikes is predicted to be lower this year, AccuWeather estimated that the threat of a direct US impact will be 'elevated.'

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