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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford held a joint press conference at McDougall Centre in Calgary on Monday, July 6, 2026. Brent Calver/Postmedia

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A feasibility study about the proposal is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

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“This is about potentially delivering a western Canadian molecule wholly within Canadian borders,” said Kevin Birn, Canadian oil markets chief analyst with S&P Global Energy.

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On Thursday, Alberta submitted a separate plan for a new million-barrel-a-day pipeline — running from Bruderheim, northeast of Edmonton, to the southern B.C. coast — to the federal Major Projects office for consideration as a project of national importance.

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The West Coast line, estimated to cost between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion, would be owned and developed by the federal government, Alberta and Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline.

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The Northern Shield and West Coast developments would require billions of dollars of additional investment by oil producers to boost output to fill that much capacity.

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Speaking last week, project proponents appeared confident the West Coast line will happen, particularly after Ottawa, Alberta and the Oil Sands Alliance said they’re working to finalize a deal that would see the country’s largest oilsands operators increase output and build the Pathways carbon capture network.

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“Nobody wants to build a pipeline and have it empty, and so we will work together with governments to figure out the right timing and staging, such that those pipelines are coming into service at the right time as production is there to fill them,” said Kendall Dilling, president of the Oil Sands Alliance.

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Kendall Dilling, president of the Pathways Alliance, speaks at a panel during the Oil Sands Trade Show at MacDonald Island Park in Fort McMurray on Sept. 10, 2025. Vincent McDermott/Fort McMurray Today/Postmedia file

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However, critics have questioned whether there will be enough incremental production or investment to fill the one million barrel per day pipeline, along with the other system expansions that are progressing.

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The province’s filings with the federal Major Projects Office indicate that won’t be an issue.

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“Analysis of individual oilsands projects have shown a combined production capacity that is well in excess of the total volume of planned egress expansion, including this project,” it states.

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“Existing and forecast production will be sufficient to fully utilize the pipeline over its lifespan, especially under moderate global oil price scenarios.”

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Future oil prices will play a factor, as will the economics of building any pipeline, affecting the tolls shippers would pay to move oil to market.

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S&P Global expects Canadian oil production will increase by 500,000 bpd over the next five or six years. To further accelerate output growth, the industry will need to expand into new production areas, instead of optimizing existing oilsands facilities, said Birn.

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And while the country requires more transportation capacity, it’s too soon to assume all of the projects will advance.

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“Canada needs to prove it can complete these larger projects,” Birn added.

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“We feel like we’re in this age of abundance in terms of pipelines, but we’re talking about abundance of promises . . . but we don’t have a track record that exactly matches abundance.”

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Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

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