The cyclonic storm brewing over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. It is likely to be the second highest in terms of intensity. Last year’s Montha was classified as a ‘severe cyclonic storm’.

The maximum sustained wind speed associated with a very severe cyclonic storm is likely to be between 118 km per hour and 221 km per hour. During Montha, the wind speed recorded at Machilipatnam was 65 kmph, while the wind speed this time may go up to 130 kmph, weather experts said.

According to the IMD bulletin released at 9.30 p.m. on Saturday, the well-marked low-pressure area formed over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal on Saturday morning concentrated into a depression by the evening.

The depression lay centred over the same region, which is about 510 km off the coast of Andaman Islands, 820 km off Vishakhapatnam coast, 910 km off Kakinada coast, 1,020 km off Machilipatnam cost and 1,100 km off Bapatla coast.

The weather system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and then gradually recurve towards the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal on Sunday. It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning, and further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal around October 27.

Thereafter, it is likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and reach the west-central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around October 28. It is very likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh​ and​ Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam ​as a very severe cyclonic storm, with the maximum sustained wind speed of 115 kmph to 125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph​ by October 28 noon.

Meanwhile, Andhra Pradesh is bracing for the impact. The IMD has already issued a red alert for 13 districts in the State for Otober 27 and 28.

A red alert has been issued for Krishna and Bapatla districts on October 27, and for Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, Kakinada, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla districts on October 28.

Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is expected in these districts.

The State may receive light showers on October 25 and 26, with cyclone-induced rainfall activity expected to increase from October 27.

Andhra Pradesh recorded no major rainfall activity on Saturday, with YSR Kadapa and Anantapur districts receiving widespread moderate showers. Simhadripuram in YSR Kadapa recorded 81.5 mm of rainfall between 8.30 a.m. and 5 p.m., while Malapuram in Anantapur received 74.5 mm. Other parts of Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra Pradesh recorded light showers.

Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has directed the officials to remain alert and take precautionary measures to deal with the situation. He called for a comprehensive plan for flood management and water conservation.