Smartphone sales in India are slumping. This is in step with a global stall as specification upgrades become more 'subtle' and component prices surge due to a memory chip crisis. Consumers see the merit of holding on to 3-4-yr-old handsets because the value proposition of the latest generation of devices has declined perceptibly. Effects are uneven across device manufacturers. Chinese companies that cater to the mass market are reporting larger drops in shipments in price-sensitive geographies like India. Flagship brands like Apple and Samsung have fared better due to their integrated supply chains. But they, too, are under pressure.

It's not that smartphones aren't getting smarter. Just that the buzzing tech jumps have made way for more nuanced upgrades. Smartphones now come with neural processing units that run generative AI tools in the device rather than on the cloud. Operating software and security support for devices have been extended. This comes at a cost to manufacturers while increasing shelf-life of handsets. Camera sensors and lenses are beginning to rival those of standalone photography gear. High refresh rates of displays have moved beyond the high-end models to mid-range devices. Wired and wireless charging times have collapsed. Yet, model-over-model improvements in processing power do not affect the performance of principal apps like WhatsApp and YouTube.

Diminishing returns have set in as phones hit a hardware tech plateau. Incremental changes like faster chips and better cameras need to be sold more aggressively to arrest lengthening upgrade cycles. Experiments with the core design of a glass slab - such as folding screens - are expensive to develop and engineer. The phone tech cycle has matured, and like the PC before it, sales growth should shift into a more sedate pace. That may work out for the good. The industry could use the pause to reimagine a new device the world 'can't do without'. Diverting some of the notoriously high-decibel advertising budgets to product development could move the needle.