South Alabama travels to Marshall 12 days after playing one of the wildest college football games of the season.

The Jaguars defeated Arkansas State, 56-49, in Week 6. It was the highest-scoring game in FBS in 2026 and was the fourth South Alabama game in a row to feature at least 66 points.

Games involving the Jaguars have averaged 73.3 total points, so it’s no wonder the Over/Under for Tuesday’s tilt against Marshall is set at 62.5.

There’s something to be said about playing into your strengths, but Major Applewhite and South Alabama may want to work on tightening up the defense.

The Jaguars can outscore their problems, sure, but they currently grade out as the worst defensive team in the country in SP+, and their 7.2 yards per play allowed is also dead last. And what’s most concerning is that South Alabama is getting carved up by some middling offenses.

Arkansas State grades out as competent by Sun Belt standards, but the Jags allowed 35 points and 449 yards of offense to Louisiana-Monroe, arguably the worst team in the country.

Marshall’s offense isn’t going to win any awards, but they boast marginally better numbers than Arkansas State, and the Thundering Herd are in a completely different stratosphere compared to ULM.

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The Thundering Herd’s defense, however, is a mess.

Marshall is allowing 33.4 points per game (116th), 6.6 yards per play (123rd), and 8.0 yards per pass (100th) through six games. SP+, Bill Connelly’s catch-all power ranking model, has Marshall as the 132nd best defense in the country. South Alabama should be able to score at will.

South Alabama’s defensive numbers are concerning, but I do think the Jaguars have the offensive firepower to overwhelm the Thundering Herd in what should be a roller coaster of a game.

Same-Game Parlay: South Alabama -3 & Over 62.5 points (+264, DraftKings)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.