KANSAS CITY — Relief is predicted for some of the driest winter crop areas in the Northern Hemisphere during the next few weeks.

Rain is expected to ease drought in western Europe during October and November, and a similar recovery from drought is predicted for US hard red winter wheat production areas. Dryness in the Black Sea region is easing, though much more rain is needed to restore soil moisture to normal.

Weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere were stagnant in a large part of the summer season. Some of the unchanging pattern can be attributed to El Niño, but more likely a blocking weather pattern over western Europe had as much to do with the trend as any other weather phenomenon. El Niño certainly added to the unchanging pattern by keeping massive high- and low-pressure systems throughout the tropics from moving significantly. Their stationary position made it more difficult for weather patterns in other parts of the world to change as well.

A massive ridge of high pressure also built up over western North America early in the summer season and later shifted to the Great Plains. This weather feature evolved initially from the quick snowmelt during the late winter and early spring in the Rocky Mountains. The lack of snow in the spring and early summer allowed the mountains to heat up faster than usual, which helped reinforce a high-pressure ridge that was favored over western North America. As the seasons changed, the ridge was a little happier over the high Plains region than over the mountains, and that is where it prevailed in recent months.

The stagnant ridge of high pressure over North America allowed weeks of heat and dryness to take place over the western and southern Plains, with some of that getting into the western Corn and Soybean Belt at times. The dryness in the Plains also was already in place from the lingering effects of the most recent La Niña event that left a part of that region with drought during the winter of 2025-26.

In the meantime, the western Europe drought and heat wave of 2025 was eased in the following winter, but enough dryness remained to help dryness return to region this past spring. A high-pressure ridge still lingering from 2025 prevailed over western Europe during the spring at the same time the strong ridge was forming over central North America and the evolution of El Niño began. That provided the atmosphere with three strong anchors for the weather and allowed the summer weather pattern to begin persisting.

The only ways for the North America and Europe blocking patterns to break down were cooler temperatures and a faster jet stream. The evolution into autumn weather started slowly, which is why the southern US Plains ridge and heat wave could not break down when September began. Temperatures over 100°F occurred nearly every day in a part of the southern Plains from July 20 to Sept. 20, crushing summer crop production and stressing livestock for weeks at a time.

Summer heat and dryness in the US central and southern Plains allowed drought to prevail and, in some cases, expand. A change in atmospheric conditions finally took place in the latter part of September that brought the jet stream farther to the south at the same time tropical cyclones were active in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Cooling in the atmosphere will bring the jet stream farther to the south, and in doing so, tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean will begin streaming into the Great Plains and western Corn and Soybean Belt.

The streaming of tropical moisture will result in a more complete breakdown in the North America high-pressure ridge and allow storm systems to move from west to east across the continent as they should at this time of year. The result of all of this will be to induce frequent bouts of rain that will ease drought, improve livestock grazing conditions, and allow winter wheat to be planted and emerge in a more favorable environment.

A similar pattern of relief is expected in Europe. A more active jet stress shifting to the south will break down the blocking weather pattern and bring much-needed rain to France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands over the next several weeks.

One more area of stagnant dryness was present in Europe this year over Hungary, western Slovakia, northern Serbia and northwestern Romania. This area also reported less than half of normal rainfall from mid-March to mid-September. The same was noted in the heart of France and parts of the United Kingdom, with some areas in west-central France reporting less than 25% of normal rain since mid-March.

Dryness in the Danube River Basin of central and southeastern Europe expanded from Hungary and neighboring areas into the lower Danube River Basin during late summer. The expansion did not stop at the shore of the Black Sea but expanded to the east across Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region, another prominent grain and oilseed production region that has since become too dry.

The same change in weather patterns that brought rain to North America and western Europe also will bring some relief to the Black Sea region and southeastern Europe. Some of that relief already has begun in Ukraine, but the remainder of Europe and the Black Sea region will see the shift toward greater precipitation in the next few weeks.

By the time the Northern Hemisphere becomes cool enough for winter wheat, barley, rye and rapeseed to turn dormant or semi-dormant later this autumn, soil moisture should be sufficiently improved in western and southeastern Europe, the western and southern US Plains, and portions of northern Africa.

China’s summer weather was quite favorable, and it looks as though its winter crop region will get some timely precipitation in the next few weeks to support planting and establishment. Winter rapeseed areas farther south in interior southern China also should have good soil moisture for planting late in October and November.

India is one winter crop area that should be closely monitored, since the odds are high that autumn and winter precipitation will be restricted this year because of El Niño. Some hotter weather also may occur during reproduction and filling in early 2027, which could contribute to a more threatening production year.

In the meantime, South Africa and southern parts of Australia, as well as Argentina and southern Brazil, have experienced mostly good weather for the planting emergence and establishment of this year’s winter crops. Yield potentials from each area should be near average and may be better than usual for an El Niño year. That, in conjunction with improved North America and Europe weather, should translate into a favorable production outlook — at least in the next few weeks and months. We will see what the spring of 2027 brings.