Global smartphone shipments fell a record 22% in the third quarter of 2026 as increasing memory costs drove up phone prices and strained supply, according to preliminary data from IDC Research (IDC).

Shipments dropped to 255.3 million units from 327.3 million a year earlier, IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker showed. The research firm linked the decline to a memory shortage driven by AI demand.

“The sharp downturn the industry has been bracing for finally materialized in the third quarter this year, with shipments declining a record 22% YoY. However, the worst is yet to come,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Devices, IDC. 

Popal said that current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom. Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments. 

“While memory inflation is beginning to slow down, with a low double-digit sequential increase in Q3 compared to roughly 50%-100% sequential growth in prior quarters, costs remain elevated across other critical components as well, compounding the crunch,” she said.

IDC expects growth to remain limited through 2027, with a possible recovery delayed until at least 2028. Phone makers face a lasting shift toward higher production costs, forcing changes in pricing and product plans.

“The third quarter shows the full impact and damage of the memory crisis,” said Francisco Jeronimo, VP for Worldwide Devices, IDC. “The pressure is now moving from vendors to consumers. As higher prices reach the shelf, many buyers are keeping their current devices longer.”

Jeronimo also noted that Chinese brands face a particularly difficult moment, as their exposure to low-end smartphones forces them to choose between protecting margins and defending volume just as demand weakens. He explained that volumes will stay under pressure in the coming quarters, while vendors with scale, secure supply and a premium mix keep gaining share in a smaller market.”

Samsung shipped 57.8 million phones, taking 22.6% of the market. Apple followed with 57.3 million units and 22.4%. Both gained market share despite shipping fewer phones.

Xiaomi’s shipments fell 29.2%, while OPPO dropped 34.5% and vivo declined 31.5%.

Some vendors increased production ahead of expected component shortages next year, IDC said. Weak demand could leave them with more unsold phones heading into 2027, adding pressure to an already shrinking global smartphone market.

The figures cover new phones and exclude refurbished units. IDC said the preliminary shipment totals remain subject to change.

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