WASHINGTON D.C (VINnews) — Republicans face a deteriorating outlook in the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives as Fox News Power Rankings moved an additional 20 contests toward Democrats, giving the opposition an edge in at least 219 seats heading into the November midterms.​

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Democrats currently hold 214 seats in the chamber, with Republicans at 218, one independent and two vacancies. A party needs 218 seats for a majority. The updated forecast projects Democrats holding an advantage in at least 219 districts, with Republicans favored in at least 198 and 18 races rated as toss-ups. On a strong night for Democrats, the party could reach around 237 seats, while a favorable outcome for Republicans would leave them with roughly 216 — short of control.

The shifts appear across a range of districts, including several that President Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Examples from the rankings graphic include Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Districts moving from toss-up to lean Democratic, Pennsylvania’s 7th and 10th Districts shifting from toss-up to lean Democratic, Pennsylvania’s 1st moving from lean Republican to toss-up, New York’s 19th advancing from likely Democratic to solid Democratic, and Texas’ 15th moving from lean Republican to toss-up. Other adjustments include Kentucky’s 6th, Missouri’s 2nd, Ohio’s 15th and Wisconsin’s 1st all edging leftward within Republican-leaning categories, alongside similar movements in Arkansas, Indiana, Montana, Nevada and New York districts.​

Fox News analysis attributes the leftward movement to Democrats’ sustained generic ballot advantage, improved candidate quality, redistricting outcomes that fell short of Republican hopes, and economic pressures — particularly elevated gas, diesel and grocery prices — weighing on voters in rural and suburban areas. Statewide factors, such as the political strength of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, also appear to be boosting Democratic prospects in key contests.​

While the House forecast tilts toward Democratic control, the Senate remains competitive. Both parties start with roughly even footing around 47 seats, with multiple toss-ups still in play. Minnesota has moved into more contested territory, with Republican Michele Tafoya narrowing the gap against Democrat Peggy Flanagan in recent polling (Flanagan leading 47%-43% in one survey, within the margin of error). The race has drawn attention over issues including fraud, crime and the broader national environment.​

The rankings highlight the historical pattern that midterms often challenge the president’s party, though final results will depend on turnout, late spending and any further developments before Election Day. Republicans retain pathways to hold the House if toss-up races break their way, but the latest shifts expand the map of competitive and Democratic-leaning districts.