WASHINGTON, D.C. — Weeks before the midterm election, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday shifted its rating of the House race between Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun in Democrats’ favor, adding to signs that the party is gaining ground in its bid to take control of the Republican-held chamber in November.

The Cook Political Report moved its rating of Southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District race from a toss-up to “lean Democratic.” It also shifted its rating of 17 other House races nationwide toward Democrats — offering further evidence of the challenges facing Republicans as voters express discontent with President Donald Trump, the ongoing war with Iran and higher prices.

Cook attributed its rating changes to the heavy spending by Republicans that, so far, has done little to shift the race in the final weeks before the election. In Washington’s 3rd District, a Trump-backed PAC reserved more than $1.5 million in ad time.

Friday’s rating shift underscores the tight, dynamic nature of the race for the 3rd District, which borders the Pacific Ocean, Oregon and the Cascade Mountains. A poll last month from Oregon Public Broadcasting had found Braun narrowly ahead of Gluesenkamp Perez, 48% to 47%, among likely and undecided voters at the time, a slim difference that falls within the poll’s 4.2-point margin of error.

“The polling I have seen has had it relatively close all cycle. There hasn’t been a lot of movement,” said Erin Covey, who leads House coverage at the Cook Political Report, which analyzes public and private polling.

“At the same time, Republicans have heavily outspent Democrats for the past month,” she said. “So the fact that, and this is a trend we saw across all the races, the heavy Republican spending has not really moved the needle is telling.”

The district has a history of swinging between parties. Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler represented the district for six terms. She lost the 2022 primary to far-right challenger Joe Kent. Gluesenkamp Perez then defeated Kent in a stunning upset that November.

Gluesenkamp Perez now faces a more moderate opponent in Braun, who must turn out Republican voters and win back moderate conservatives who previously backed the Democratic incumbent. Meanwhile, the incumbent faces anger from some of her Democratic base.

But that divide may not keep them from supporting her, Covey said: Even when moderate candidates face resistance from parts of the base, voters typically fall in line when they recognize what’s at stake.

“Democratic voters, obviously, their enthusiasm is a lot higher than Republican voters right now. It’s hard to see some of these voters not holding their nose and voting for her,” she said. “That is why we believe that she has a clear edge.”

The candidates debated for the first time this week.

Braun urged voters to preserve Republican control of Republican seats in Congress, arguing that it would yield a more productive government. Gluesenkamp Perez maintained that while she is a Democrat, she does not “represent partisan interests” — a central message in her effort to hold on to a district that Trump has won three times. At times, both candidates also stretched the truth about their opponents and the issues they addressed.