The US-Iran war reached the seven-month mark with a striking development taking shape: Middle East oil exports rebounded in September as Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz began to erode. But what looks like a breakthrough for regional producers may prove less durable than headlines suggest.

Gulf crude exports reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September excluding Iran, returning to pre-conflict levels and up from 6.5 million in March, according to Kpler. The recovery reflects months of adaptation by Gulf states, with the conflict reshaping regional energy logistics and export strategies as the US military has simultaneously ramped up support for shipping in recent months. 

Yet the market has hardly celebrated. International benchmark Brent crude hovered right around $100 per barrel on the news, still up some 40% from pre-war levels. Traders continue pricing in significant risks to supply amid fears that Iran will escalate attacks in the Gulf and beyond as Hormuz leverage weakens. 

“The whole situation feels fragile and tentative,” Jim Krane, a research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Al-Monitor.