Well, on the bright side of things, the autumn box office should continue at a great hum this weekend thanks to Amazon MGM Studios’ feature take on the Colleen Hoover thriller Verity, starring Dakota Johnson, Anne Hathaway and Josh Hartnett. The domestic outlook is $30 million-plus at 3,510 theaters, with the definite potential to overperform […]
Well, on the bright side of things, the autumn box office should continue at a great hum this weekend thanks to Amazon MGM Studios’ feature take on the Colleen Hoover thriller Verity, starring Dakota Johnson, Anne Hathaway and Josh Hartnett. The domestic outlook is $30 million-plus at 3,510 theaters, with the definite potential to overperform given how there’s walk-up business from Hoover-philes.
The Michael Showalter-directed thriller also has a shot at $20M-$25M in 70 offshore territories sans Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and CIS in this suite, which would be a $50M-$55M global start. Previews stateside start Thursday on Verity at 2 p.m.
Meanwhile, light candles and say prayers for Warner Bros/Legendary Entertainment’s Tom Cruise-starring, Alejandro G. Iñárritu-directed Digger. Many are bracing for what could be one of Cruise’s lowest wide openings at the box office of the millennium. Warners believes the movie can get to $12M-$15M at 3,300 theaters; others believe it’d lucky to break $10M at the domestic box office.
Seventy-three foreign territories except Poland, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand (no China release) are expected to deliver another $15M-$20M abroad for Digger at 14,000+ screens, which would mean a $35M global start at the high end for the reported net $125M production (rumors suggest the movie cost much higher, between $140M-$150M).
Unlike the Dune franchise, Legendary didn’t co-finance Digger, but they did produce it. Previews start at 2 p.m. in North America, with tickets on sale in Imax, Dolby Cinema, VistaVision, PLFs and motion seats.
Digger was shot at Leavesden Studios with UK tax credits; the global marketing spend is approaching $100M. To say that the movie is divisive is an understatement, with some critics hailing the brilliance of the polemic movie and its Doctor Strangelove satire, while others were simply impatient watching it. Current Rotten Tomatoes critical score is 52%, and know that Cruise has had lower ratings (2017’s The Mummy was 15% Rotten with reviewers, and 2016’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back was 37% Rotten). Warners in a last-minute marketing salvo is leaning into selling the controversy of the film with a final spot, this tweet having clocked 2.2 million views:
Back in his heyday as a star, Cruise posted low openings at the domestic box office in the single-digit range (i.e., the classic Rain Man opened to $7M in 1988 at 1,248 theaters and powered to $172.8M domestic), but those were different distribution days when movies opened small and played long. Post-2000, some of Cruise’s lowest North American opening have included the 2007 drama Lions for Lambs ($6.7M; $35M production cost), 2012’s Rock of Ages ($14.4M; $75M production cost), Jack Reacher ($15.2M and $60M production cost, though it spawned a Prime Video TV franchise) and 2017’s American Made ($16.7M; $60M net production).
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However, on a seismic bomb level, 2017’s The Mummy at $31.6M domestic opening/$172.6M worldwide wasn’t enough to save that $195M production, which finaled at $80.2M domestic, $409.2M WW. The arguments made for his spendy Mission: Impossible movies, particularly the last two, is that they’re bound to profit in their nth cycle (You gotta look at the overall library not just the individual movie, Paramount says in defending that franchise).
What positive things are there to say about Digger at this point? Domestic tracking in first choice climbed from a 2 since landing on tracking to a 7, which is the same as Cruise’s American Made and higher than Marty Supreme ($17.7M opening). Who wants to see this movie? Best first choice right now is men over 25, which is above the tracking figures for American Made and Marty Supreme.
Back to Verity. We hear U.S./Canada presales are behind It Ends With Us ($50M opening; $148.5M domestic final, $351.4M WW), but that’s not a bad thing. That movie was Hoover’s most popular novel, and it opened when Blake Lively was in the mega-ether of Deadpool & Wolverine. Not to mention female audiences were intrigued by the percolating crisis between Lively and her co-star/director Justin Baldoni (fans were already deconstructing bad blood between them from red-carpet photos alone).
Hollywood went on a buying spree, snapping up Hoover tomes for the big screen. Two of them, Paramount’s Regretting You ($13.6M opening, $48.8M domestic, $90.4M WW) and Reminders of Him ($17.9M opening, $48.5M domestic, $89.2M WW) were all right in regards to their budgets, but not box office sensations. Verity is arguably Hoover’s second-most popular novel.
Like-for-like comps for Verity abroad are above The Drama ($9.4M international opening), lit thriller Where the Crawdads Sing ($12M) and Reminders of Him ($10M, though that was in 56 territories). The lit adaptation should do well in Europe, specifically Scandinavia, and we’re hearing advance ticket sales are really hot in Brazil, where Verity is above It Ends With Us. In like-for-likes, It Ends With Us had a $45.6M opening.
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Also opening stateside in 1,350 theaters this frame is Lionsgate Premiere’s horror pic Beware Boiuna from filmmaker Mike P. Nelson, which is looking at single digits. Blurb: A team of doctors embark on a local mission in the Amazon rainforest, but it soon becomes clear that not everybody — or everything — is happy to see them. Their sudden appearance draws the attention of an animal predator, the “Boiúna.”
Meanwhile, don’t count out A24’s Primetime. Many thought the pic would be front-loaded, but it has posted solid weekdays and is now up to a running total of $23.8M. The Lance Oppenheim-directed movie starring Robert Pattinson could hold to better than -60%.
Older adults will continue to go to Paramount’s Brad Pitt survival movie The Heart of the Beast, with a second-weekend dip of around 40%. Its U.S./Canada cume currently is $26M. Last weekend’s Avengers Endgame: Encore looks to decline around 60% in its second weekend. The reissue with extra Avengers: Doomsday footage stands at $31.1M.