Housing starts are supporting the forecast demand in housing, with affordability possibly recovering to 2019 levels in 10 years.

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Edmonton is leading all major markets in a new study looking at future housing affordability. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released its Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report, examining whether the current average annual new home starts would be sufficient by 2036 to restore affordability to 2019 levels.

“In Edmonton, there’s no measurable supply gap, based on our modeling, suggesting that the current pace is sufficient to maintain pre-pandemic affordability over the next decade,” says Taylor Pardy, lead economist for the Prairies at CMHC.

That’s unlike other major markets where significant supply gaps exist, with the exception of Calgary. The study shows Calgary has a modest supply gap that is likely already closing based on its recent high levels of annual starts.

“Their results in the study are really a function of how well Edmonton and Calgary have been in recent years scaling up supply.”

Pardy adds that the study does not propose that restoring affordability to 2019 levels involves prices returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Rather, CMHC cites that restoring affordability is based on the average house price-to-average gross household income ratio.

In Edmonton, that ratio was about 25 per cent in 2019. Today, it is slightly above 30 per cent. For the ratio to decrease to about 25 per cent, Edmonton’s average annual start pace of 15,000 — which is below recent annual averages including a record-setting 21,337 starts in 2025 — would be adequate.

Current new home construction has already been benefiting the city’s homebuyers, says Nathan Mol, an Edmonton realtor with Liv Real Estate.

“For buyers looking in new suburbs, we are seeing a better ability to negotiate pricing and incentives with builders.”

He adds that new homes on the market today are an increasingly affordable alternative for buyers. That’s led to better pricing in the resale market. “Sellers are having to consider their pricing strategies” to remain competitive.

Edmonton remains among the most affordable major markets despite its average price increasing more than 20 per cent over the past five years, Realtors Association of Edmonton statistics show.

Even with Edmonton’s expected strong economic growth of about six per cent annually over the coming years, among the fastest growth for Canadian cities, “the underlying fundamentals look pretty good” for housing affordability over the next decade, Pardy says.

By comparison, other major markets are likely to fall short of the new supply required to restore affordability to 2019 levels.

That includes Toronto where affordability has recently neared 2019 levels due to its ongoing slump brought on by higher interest rates, slower international migration and trade uncertainty with the United States.

Yet to maintain those affordability gains, Toronto builders would have to increase starts by 20,000 or more beyond its current average annual pace of 42,000 units.

Adding to the challenge, the downturn in real estate in Canada’s largest market is dampening new home activity.

“Last year, for example, Toronto had just over 26,000 housing starts.”

Pardy adds that demand in larger centres and even Edmonton may be higher than expected over the coming decade.

“There’s potentially a lot of people still living with their parents, for example,” he says, adding that this underlying demand factor is difficult to predict accurately.

“So there’s an unknown suppressed-demand factor on top of the existing forecast for demand growth that could affect the eventual outcome.”