CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA — Australia’s winter crop production is forecast to fall by 12% in marketing year 2026-‍27 to 61 million tonnes, still the fourth largest crop on record and 16% above the 10-year average to 2025-26, according to a quarterly report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Winter crop production — mainly wheat, barley and canola — has been revised up 12% compared to the June 2026 Australian crop report. This reflects better-than-expected conditions in most southern cropping regions with upwards revisions for all major winter crops from the June forecast, ABARES said.

The updated forecast reflects excellent growing conditions in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, being more than offset by closer to average conditions in Western Australia and poor conditions in northern New South Wales and Queensland, the agency noted.

“Despite the below-average winter rainfall outlook in May, seasonal conditions throughout winter have been much better than expected, boosting production prospects across most major southern cropping regions,” ABARES said.

Wheat production is seen sinking 17% to 29.9 million tonnes in 2026–‍27, largely reflecting an 11% decrease in the area planted but remaining 3% above the 10-‍year average.

Projected barley production is down 3% to 16.4 million tonnes in 2026–‍27, 30% above the 10-‍year average, with the area planted to barley estimated to be up 6% year on year.

Despite a 2% increase in the area, the canola crop is forecast to decrease 5% to 7.3 million tonnes in 2026–‍27, largely reflecting lower yields in Western Australia. This would still be 37% above the 10-‍ year average.

While there has been significant uncertainty around the price and availability of fuel and fertilizer at the start of the season, it has not resulted in a significant impact on production potential, with farmers able to access inputs, albeit often at a higher price, according to ABARES.

“Growers in some regions have prioritized fertilizer application on canola at the expense of cereals but this is not expected to have a significant impact on total production volume, with seasonal conditions driving expected production outcomes,” ABARES said.

Still in its early stages, summer crop sorghum production is forecast to fall by 26% to just over 1.9 million tonnes in 2026–27. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to fall by 9% to 592,000 hectares but remain 12% above the 10-year average. 

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John Reidy is senior digital media editor for World Grain, covering the grain, flour and feed industries. He spent 25 years in newspapers as a reporter and editor and has been an editor in the grain industry since 2019. He joined Sosland Publishing Company in 2021. He is a graduate of Creighton University with a degree in journalism. Connect with John Reidy on LinkedIn or via email.