Odisha is experiencing one of its most intense monsoons, recording 1,453 mm of rainfall between June and September 25 this year, a 29% excess. The reason is the unusually large number of atmospheric systems, including 11 over the Bay of Bengal, the latest making landfall near Kalingapatnam on September 23. The IMD had forecast that India would receive 90% of the long-period average partly because an El Niño was expected to develop; the State had finished June itself with a 47% deficit. However, rainfall in the region came to be dominated by the weather systems, which also repeatedly delivered rain without giving locals time to recover. By the State’s estimates, 5.2 lakh people had been affected by July 30 and another 13.5 lakh by August 27. At least 60 locations have so far received more than 100 mm of rain in 24 hours, with the runoff swelling multiple rivers and threatening more floods downstream, including in Bhadrak and Jajpur, and landslides in hilly areas. When a previous bout of rain has already saturated the soil and topped local storage, a new bout could lead more immediately to runoff. While the State’s south is predominantly highland and confronts slope failure risks, its coast is a depositional plain of multiple deltas, rendering a terrain with low gradient through which water does not readily drain into the sea.

The efficacy of the State’s long-standing policy to have zero casualties remains to be seen, especially given the extent to which the ongoing season will stress the drain design and maintenance deficiencies that the CAG had flagged in 2024. Other important data include the eventual crop and infrastructure damage assessments and the peak levels of the Baitarani, Budhabalanga, Jalaka, and Rushikulya rivers after the 11th system fades. A study in May by the Odisha University of Agriculture and Technology, based on data from 1901-2020, reported that both maximum one-day and five-day rainfall bursts were becoming more common even as the frequency of heavy-rain days was dipping. The State has been renowned for its disaster management protocols. However, the recurrent waterlogging in urban hubs such as Berhampur and the disruption of inter-State highways and rail networks suggest that its evacuation protocols outpace its civic engineering, with significant room to improve socio-economic and infrastructural resilience. Climate change is also increasingly correlated with more protracted monsoon withdrawal and intense rain events. Taken together, Odisha needs to pivot from anticipating isolated seasonal anomalies to preparing for repeated intense downpours.