European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees the depression off the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast by Monday along with projected rain field (in blue and green). | Photo Credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com

The 2026 monsoon has begun its retreat from the north-west India about two days later than normal, but a defiant Bay of Bengal has responded by conjuring up a fresh low-pressure area that is expected to strengthen and drive a spell of rain and thunderstorms across parts of the south and east late into the season. There are indications that another ’low’ may form along the Myanmar coast towards the fag end of the month.

The juxtaposition captures the annual transition from the south-west to north-east monsoon: one monsoon is withdrawing even as atmospheric conditions for another phase of seasonal rain begin to take shape over the Bay with maximum benefits accruing to rain-scarce South Peninsula and East and North-East India.

The stakes are higher this year because the monsoon, as it enters the last full week of life, will up end in deficit. Rainfall is running 15 per cent below normal nationally as of Saturday, with the South Peninsula bearing the sharper shortfall at 28 per cent. Exceptionally warm conditions associated with a major El Niño event over the eastern Pacific appear to have exacted a particularly heavy toll on the southern parts of the country.

The late-season Bay system could therefore provide some much-needed rain. Whether it ultimately helps the farm economy will depend less on its contribution to the national monsoon tally than on where, when and how intensely the rain falls. So analysts feel the kharif is faced with a late-season weather gamble.

Sowing, which had recovered to near-normal levels by late August, has bought farmers some protection from the season’s deficient rainfall. But acreage is only the first part of the agricultural equation. The final yield now depends increasingly on moisture availability during the closing stages of the crop cycle.

A September spell of useful rain over central, eastern and southern agricultural belts could replenish depleted soil moisture and help standing soybean, pulses, maize, cotton and some oilseeds through their final growth stages. It could also improve water availability for the approaching rabi sowing season and slow the depletion of reservoirs in rain-deficit regions.

But much of the kharif crop has already passed through critical growth stages during July and August. Rain arriving now cannot be expected to fully reverse accumulated moisture stress. And if the Bay system intensifies rapidly and delivers concentrated or very heavy rain, the benefits could quickly turn into losses through water-logging, lodging, disease, flooding and damage to crops nearing harvest.

The next meeting of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for October 5-7, while the September consumer-price inflation data are due only on October 12. The MPC will enter its October meeting without the latest official CPI reading. That leaves policymakers having to assess the September inflation trajectory indirectly using available price data; market arrivals; crop assessments; reservoir conditions; and evolving weather picture.

Viewed against this background, the late Bay storm would present the RBI with a two-sided signal. A well-distributed September rain could reduce food-supply risks and improve the inflation outlook. But a storm that brings destructive rather than beneficial rain could leave the underlying kharif yield problem unresolved. The larger question for the October MPC to ponder would be whether the late rain has been agronomically useful enough to prevent a deficient monsoon from becoming a persistent food-inflation shock. 

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the latest ‘low’ to intensify into a depression by Monday and potentially into a deep depression, next only in rank to a cyclone, by Tuesday. The parent ‘pulse’ had drifted in from Thailand on Friday, and settled over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay. The intensified ‘low’ is expected to move west-northwest, strengthen further and approach the west-central and adjoining north-west Bay near the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast by Wednesday.

An east-west trough extending from the low towards south Coastal Andhra Pradesh across the central Bay was providing a pathway for the system, while circulations persisted over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan; the north-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra; and the north Bay and adjoining coastal Bangladesh. The IMD, however, has not indicated further intensification of the system or specified a landfall location. The atmospheric setting, however, is supportive of a spell of unsettled weather. 

Heavy rain is forecast over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, including a spell of very heavy rain from Tuesday. Telangana also may receive very heavy rain from Tuesday. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe, Karnataka and parts of Rayalaseema are expected to see varying degrees of rain and thunderstorm activity.

Squalls of up to 70 km/hr are possible over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Monday and Tuesday and over Telangana later in the week. Strong surface winds may sweep parts of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Telangana. The broader forecast points to fairly widespread to widespread rain over Kerala; Karnataka; Telangana; and Lakshadweep with more rain for Andhra Pradesh and parts of Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema.

Meanwhile, the monsoon withdrawal line had moved further south and east across Rajasthan by Sunday morning, passing through Ramgarh; Mohangarh; Phalodi; and Khajuwala. Conditions remain favourable for further withdrawal from parts of Rajasthan, Punjab and Saurashtra and Kutch over the next three to four days.

Published on September 20, 2026