The EU could face its worst winter since the 2022 energy crisis, Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has warned, as the bloc grapples with soaring prices and uncertainty over fuel supplies.

European natural gas prices have nearly tripled this year, surging from around €27 ($31) in January to more than €80 per megawatt-hour in September – their highest level in nearly four years.

“This winter might be very, very bad [for the EU] and it might be the worst one we’ve had since 2022,” the Financial Times quoted Jorgensen as saying on Friday. The most likely scenario is “very, very high prices,” he added.

Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev blamed Brussels’ energy policies for the looming difficulties.

“The ‘worst winter since 2022’… will once again expose EU bureaucrats’ energy suicide of decoupling from Russian energy,” he wrote on X on Friday.

Since the Ukraine conflict escalated in 2022, Russia’s share of EU gas imports has fallen from around 45% to 12%, while its share of oil imports has dropped from 27% to about 2%.

The 2022 energy crisis sent household bills across the EU to record highs. In the second half of that year, average household gas prices were about 46% higher year-on-year, while electricity prices rose roughly 21%, according to Eurostat. Governments responded with subsidies, price caps, and tax cuts.

The bloc now faces additional pressure in the diesel market. US President Donald Trump this week backed restricting diesel exports as domestic prices hit record highs. The US has supplied about a third of Europe’s diesel imports this year, with the share rising to around half in August.

Jorgensen urged Washington to maintain “as free a flow of energy between our countries as possible,” while arguing that the EU must ultimately reduce its reliance on oil and gas.

“If we do not move away from this dependency on fossil fuels, then I can promise everybody it will be a permanent crisis,” he said.

That transition, however, remains a long-term challenge. Almost 70% of energy used for heating and cooling in the EU still comes from oil and gas. The European Commission plans to expand electrification, power grids, and storage, but even by 2040 aims to electrify only 46% of final energy consumption.