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Anthropic has modeled three possible futures for the U.S. economy as artificial intelligence becomes more deeply integrated into the workforce, with its most aggressive scenario projecting that AI could make the economy 32% larger within four years while leaving nearly one in five knowledge workers unemployed.

The scenarios were published Sept. 9 by Anthropic, the company behind Claude, as part of an effort to estimate how AI could affect economic growth, employment, wages and the distribution of wealth. The analysis does not predict which outcome is most likely and excludes factors such as robotics, recessions, financial crashes and major government intervention.

In the most moderate scenario, AI affects about 4% of economic activity, primarily by helping workers rather than replacing them. Anthropic estimates annual economic growth would increase from 2% to 2.4%, while unemployment would rise only slightly, from 3.8% to 3.9%. The company compares this potential impact with the economic transformation brought by the internet. These projections are detailed in <a href=”https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios”>Anthropic’s economic scenarios</a>.

A second scenario assumes AI affects 12% of work, with replacement becoming more common than assistance. Under those conditions, annual growth could reach 5.4%, while unemployment rises to 4.6%.

The most extreme scenario assumes AI handles 30% of economic tasks, representing roughly half of all knowledge work, with little or no new employment created to replace displaced workers. Anthropic says this would likely require AI systems capable of improving themselves. Economic growth could reach 15.4% annually, enough to double the size of the economy roughly every 4.5 years.

The tradeoff would be substantial. Overall unemployment could climb to 11.9%, while unemployment among knowledge workers could reach 17.9%. Anthropic’s researchers say the consequences would extend beyond anything seen in previous economic transformations.

The analysis also points to a potential shift in who benefits from economic growth. Workers currently receive about 60 cents of every dollar generated by the economy, while owners of capital receive roughly 40 cents. In the extreme scenario, that split changes to approximately 45 cents for workers and 54 cents for owners.

Knowledge workers, including professionals, managers, sales employees and office workers, could face the greatest pressure. In the extreme scenario, their wages could fall more than 11% below the level expected without AI, while other workers could see incomes rise by roughly one-third.

Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark has cautioned that technological capability does not automatically translate into immediate economic adoption. He told NPR that AI will continue improving rapidly, but “it will make its way into the economy more slowly.”

For workers, the biggest uncertainty may therefore be how easily people can transition into new roles as AI changes existing ones. Anthropic’s projections suggest the economic gains could be enormous, but they also raise a fundamental question: who will actually benefit from an AI-driven boom?