When asked between May 18 and June 5 to rate optimism about the overall U.S. economy on a scale from 0 to 100, the average rating from CFOs was 60.6, falling slightly from 61.7 in the first quarter of 2026.

Inflation jumped back to the top of the list of CFOs’ most pressing concerns, followed closely by non-labor costs. Geopolitical risk appeared on the list for the first time.

Since the last survey, CFOs added 1.1 percentage points to their firm’s unit cost and price growth projections for 2026.

Financial executives lowered their expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 1.8 percent, from 2.1 percent in the prior survey. Moreover, the probability respondents assign to negative year-ahead economic growth edged up slightly to 11.5 percent.

In the second quarter of 2026, there was a slight decrease in the number of firms hiring and a jump in the number of firms laying off workers.

The second quarter survey also asked firms how they expect demand for goods and services over the next 12 months to compare with the past 12 months. About 57 percent of firms expect demand to increase, and 31 percent expect demand to remain about the same.

Firms were asked how the increase in oil prices since Feb. 27 had impacted their unit costs, prices, and demand. Two-thirds of firms reported increased costs, while only one-third of firms reported increased prices.

On the demand side, the vast majority of firms reported little to no change due to increased oil prices.

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