By Alex Rivadeneira, Carlo Alcaraz, Nicolas Amoroso, Rodolfo Oviedo, Brenda Samaniego de la Parra and Horacio Sapriza

Working Papers

November 2025, No. 25-11

We study the drivers and real effects of credit supply shocks during a major non-financial recession, the COVID-19 crisis. Using data on the universe of bank loans in Mexico, we isolate the supply-driven component of credit variations. Credit supply conditions deteriorated in this period, driven by banks' heightened risk aversion. Using matched employer-employee records, we find that negative credit supply shocks reduced firms' employment and increased their exit probability. These effects are larger among financially constrained firms and workers with lower separation costs. In the aggregate, negative credit shocks account for one-third of the total employment decline for small firms.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21144/wp25-11