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Estimating the Missing Intercept

Дата публикации: 17-11-2025 13:00:00

An econometric framework that can jointly leverage identification strategies from the applied microeconometric toolkit and identification assumptions from the macro/time series literature exploits both time series and crosssectional variation to identify aggregate macroeconomic effects as well as idiosyncratic effects of identified shocks.

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Working Papers

November 2025, No. 25-12

Cross-sectional data have proven to be increasingly useful for macroeconomic research. However, their use often leads to the 'missing intercept' problem in which aggregate general equilibrium effects and policy responses are absorbed into fixed effects. We present a statistical approach to jointly estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic effects within a panel framework, leveraging identification strategies coming from both cross-sectional or time-series settings. We then apply our methodology to study government spending multipliers (Nakamura and Steinsson, 2014) and wealth effects from stock returns (Chodorow-Reich et al., 2021).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21144/wp25-12

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