Direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity has quickly become one of the wireless industry’s most closely watched technologies. Mobile operators are launching new satellite partnerships, providers are expanding commercial services, and smartphone manufacturers are adding satellite support to more devices. Investment in D2D technology has topped $40 billion over the past year alone, but that momentum raises practical questions: how quickly are consumers adopting D2D, what can today’s services actually do, and what will it take for satellite connectivity to become a meaningful extension of mobile networks?

Early commercial deployments and real-world network measurements are beginning to provide answers. Adoption is growing, but not at the same pace everywhere. Coverage, not speed, remains D2D’s defining strength, with early deployments showing particular value in rural areas, outdoor environments, maritime settings, and emergency communications.

To learn more about D2D and how it’s reshaping mobile coverage, check out our webinar on demand, From Space to Your Pocket: How D2D Could Redefine Global Coverage.

Commercial launches are expanding the global footprint of D2D services, but availability doesn’t always translate into widespread adoption (at least not right away). Device compatibility, operator partnerships, pricing strategies, and regional market conditions all influence how quickly subscribers are able to begin using satellite connectivity, so adoption and usage looks different from one market to the next.

Australia stands out as one of the more mature D2D markets, with a relatively large share of users (although still a tiny fraction of overall terrestrial mobile network usage) actively connecting to D2D networks and spending meaningful time on those connections. The UK has grown quickly from a low base following O2’s launch with Starlink, while Japan shows comparatively low usage despite being an early mover. In the U.S. and Canada, usage appears to have cooled somewhat, with promotional terms and winter seasonality both likely playing a role.

A more recent example comes from the Philippines, where Globe launched Southeast Asia’s first D2D service. Our background scan data has shown signs of network usage months before the official launch in several markets, indicative of extensive early testing before consumer go-live.

Early launches are starting to show how D2D adoption and usage can vary by market:

• Availability does not guarantee adoption: Commercial D2D services are reaching more markets, but usage still depends on device compatibility, operator strategy, pricing, and local conditions (especially spectrum access and licensing maturity). 
• Market maturity varies: Australia shows more sustained D2D usage, while the UK has grown quickly from a lower starting point (reflecting important geographic differences in the distribution of terrestrial coverage gaps relative to where people actually use their devices). 
• Promotions can lift early usage: In the U.S. and Canada, promotional offers appear to have influenced adoption, but many operators are now starting to charge an additional fee for D2D access in the hope of stimulating average revenue per user (ARPU) or exclusively bundling it with more expensive and premium rate plans.
• Seasonality can affect usage: D2D usage can dip during winter months in both hemispheres, when people tend to spend less time outdoors (doing activities like hiking) and outside terrestrial coverage areas.

For decades, mobile operators have competed on faster speeds, lower latency, more reliable service, and broader geographic coverage. With D2D, coverage takes on even greater importance because the technology is designed to extend basic connectivity to rural areas, remote outdoor locations, maritime environments, and other places where terrestrial cellular service is typically limited or unavailable.

D2D is built to complement existing terrestrial mobile networks, not replace them, by extending basic connectivity to places where cellular service is typically limited or unavailable. In controlled RootMetrics drive testing across the U.S. in the first half of 2026, D2D successfully completed roughly nine out of ten text messages from a moving vehicle, a strong result for a technology originally designed for stationary use with a clear view of the sky. In states like Oregon, D2D usage shows up in as much as 5.7% of drive test samples, concentrated in the rural areas where terrestrial coverage gaps are most common.

In Venezuela, D2D helped provide connectivity after earthquakes disrupted terrestrial networks. Regulators moved quickly to authorize D2D, and all three national operators partnered with Starlink almost immediately. Our network data showed D2D connections carrying mobile services in the hardest-hit areas, while terrestrial scan counts fell as power and infrastructure failed.

Ookla cross-referenced its Venezuela network data with seismic activity data from the U.S.Geological Survey. The areas with the most severe shaking also showed the greatest volume of D2D satellite connections, suggesting that D2D can help maintain communications when terrestrial networks are disrupted by severe events like earthquakes.

Early D2D services are not trying to compete with cellular performance. They are focused on keeping users connected in places and situations where traditional mobile networks are limited, unavailable, or temporarily knocked offline.

Today’s D2D services are still focused largely on basic messaging and emergency communications (with access to bandwidth-light applications now available), but the industry expects the technology to support far more use cases over time. The longer-term vision is full voice, data, and messaging on a subscriber’s existing device, making satellite connectivity feel like part of the normal mobile experience rather than a separate feature for emergencies or other limited use cases.

Wi-Fi offers a useful parallel. Standards like Passpoint helped make Wi-Fi and cellular handoffs feel more seamless by reducing the need for users to manually find, select, or authenticate on a network. D2D could follow a similar path: adoption is likely to remain limited as long as satellite access requires extra steps (like upgrading to a new handset, which may be needed in the coming years to take advantage of the new spectrum that the D2D players are acquiring to boost capacity), but usage could grow as the experience becomes more automatic. In the long run, subscribers may not need to know whether their connection is moving across cellular, Wi-Fi, or satellite.

The path forward depends on making D2D feel less like a separate satellite service and more like an integrated part of the mobile experience:

• Seamless network switching: Devices and everyday activities like calls should be able to move across cellular, Wi-Fi, and satellite without requiring users to manage the connection
• Broader service support: Voice, data, and messaging would open the door to more use cases across consumer, IoT, public safety, and enterprise environments
• Less user effort: Adoption should improve as satellite access becomes more automatic and requires fewer extra steps from subscribers, and moves from being a premium tariff bolt-on to a standard part of mobile subscriptions (in the same way 5G access evolved over time). 

Technology alone won’t determine how fast D2D scales. Regulators around the world are taking different approaches to spectrum allocation, coverage obligations, and national priorities, and those decisions are already shaping when and where commercial services can launch.

Europe shows how regulatory decisions can affect rollout timelines. No commercial D2D service exists there yet outside the UK and Ukraine, largely because of regulatory pace rather than technical limitations within Brussels’ sphere of influence. The European Commission recently announced plans to divide the 2 GHz MSS spectrum band into three categories: one for government-facing services, one reserved for European companies, and one open to all players (including U.S. heavyweights like SpaceX and Amazon Leo). The approach reflects Europe’s effort to balance commercial D2D rollout with public-sector needs and sovereign control over satellite spectrum. Some industry watchers expect broader European rollout could wait until 2028 or later, following the next World Radiocommunication Conference.

The U.S. and Australia show how regulators can accelerate D2D rollout in different ways. In the U.S., the FCC has opened additional spectrum bands for D2D, allowed Starlink to acquire AWS-3 spectrum through re-auction, and created room for private spectrum deals, including a potential 800 MHz spectrum lease from Grain Management, a private investment firm focused on communications infrastructure, to a D2D provider. Australia has taken a more obligation-based approach: its Universal Coverage Obligation, set to take effect next year, would potentially allow operators to provide a baseline level of D2D coverage for emergency communications, a policy few other regulators have adopted yet.

Regulatory approaches are already shaping D2D rollout in important ways:

• Coverage obligations remain separate: Most regulators do not currently treat D2D coverage as a substitute for terrestrial mobile coverage obligations
• Europe is moving more cautiously: Europe’s approach to the 2GHz MSS band could delay broader commercial rollout until 2028 or later
• The U.S. and Australia are moving faster, but differently: The U.S. is opening more spectrum pathways, while Australia is using emergency coverage requirements to push D2D forward

D2D needs a sustainable business model. In most cases, mobile operators are not building satellite networks themselves; they are partnering with satellite providers that can supply the infrastructure, spectrum, or both. The harder commercial question is how to package, price, and monetize D2D in a way that encourages adoption while supporting the investment required to expand service.

Three commercial models are taking shape:

• Mobile operator partnerships: Most satellite providers are working through mobile operators, with carriers owning the customer relationship while satellite companies provide the infrastructure, spectrum, or both. This is the model pursued by AST SpaceMobile. 
• Device-led partnerships: Apple has taken a different route through its partnership with Globalstar (since purchased by Amazon), using MSS spectrum rather than shared terrestrial bands
• Direct-to-consumer satellite service: A model where satellite providers bypass mobile operators has been discussed in the context of Starlink Mobile, but regulatory hurdles make it difficult in most markets

Pricing remains just as fluid. Some operators are bundling D2D into premium plans, while others are using free trials to encourage early adoption. Revenue-sharing models between satellite providers and mobile operators are still being negotiated case by case, and consolidation could accelerate as companies compete for spectrum, satellite capacity, and operator relationships. 

D2D has moved beyond proof-of-concept demonstrations and into commercial deployment, but today’s services are still early and limited in capability and usage. Continued progress depends on more than adding satellites; providers also need reliable ways to get larger, more capable satellites into orbit.

That creates a practical bottleneck. Larger satellites can generally support stronger D2D performance, but they require larger rockets and reliable launch schedules, and only a limited number of companies can support those needs today. SpaceX’s Starship, the company’s heavy-lift rocket designed to carry larger payloads into orbit, remains central to many D2D expansion plans, while Blue Origin’s recent launchpad setback shows how quickly timelines can shift. Rocket Lab’s planned $8 billion bid for Iridium’s spectrum assets also points to how closely launch capability, spectrum access, and D2D ambitions are becoming linked.

Device compatibility could also slow D2D adoption. Even once spectrum bands are approved by 3GPP standards, device manufacturers are not obligated to integrate every band. Given that phones are often used for years before being replaced, widespread adoption of new satellite-compatible devices could take time.

Several factors could affect how quickly D2D scales from early deployments to a more seamless part of mobile service:

• Launch access: Larger, higher-performing D2D satellites require larger rockets and reliable launch schedules
• Device support: Device manufacturers must build support for new MSS bands into future hardware, and that process is not guaranteed to move quickly
• Network integration: Satellite and terrestrial systems will need to work together more seamlessly before D2D feels like a natural part of mobile service
• Commercial models: Operators and satellite providers will keep testing pricing, packaging, and revenue-sharing models as they learn how consumers value satellite connectivity

Direct-to-device satellite connectivity is moving from industry promise to commercial reality. Adoption remains uneven across markets, but early deployments show real progress as operators expand services, regulators define new rules, and satellite providers work through the launch, device, and integration challenges that will shape D2D’s next phase.

D2D addresses a challenge terrestrial networks cannot solve on their own: extending basic connectivity beyond the reach of traditional cellular infrastructure. Venezuela’s earthquake response shows what that capability can look like in practice, especially when terrestrial networks are damaged or unavailable.

As D2D matures, real-world network intelligence will play an increasingly important role in tracking adoption, evaluating service performance, and measuring how satellite connectivity becomes another layer of the global mobile ecosystem. 

To learn more about D2D and how it’s reshaping mobile coverage, check out our webinar on demand, From Space to Your Pocket: How D2D Could Redefine Global Coverage.