Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series (Updated: Aug. 21, 2026): Here are the episode submissions for the comedic geniuses who standout in this year’s competitive category.

Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) | “Night Out”

The 2023 winner takes Janine off the grounds of the ABC workplace comedy, the oldest trick in the submission playbook, and still one of the best. Brunson plays Janine drunk, an entertaining swerve that has served actors well over the years, including Megan Mullally for the sitcom “Will & Grace” and Jamie Lee Curtis for “The Bear.”

Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” (FX) | “Worms”

A supporting actress winner in 2023 who has competed in lead ever since, Edebiri picks the episode she’s most associated with, having co-written it with co-star Lionel Boyce. It’s a canny choice in a year when the FX restaurant dramedy feels thinner than usual, and she’s the show’s only nominee in a lead acting category.

Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) | “Lock and Load”

Her second nomination in this category after “The Great” in 2022, and a shot at a rare Oscar-to-Emmy double following her win for the Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value.” “Lock and Load” is the season’s biggest ask because it’s the finale. You’re betting voters watching the Apple TV comedy in full and arriving with the context for her performance as a 20-year-old aspiring writer-turned-OnlyFans model trying to support her newborn. She is also a dual nominee this year as a producer.

Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max) | “Valerie Faces Reality”

It’s been 21 years since the first go-round. Valerie Cherish is back, and so is Kudrow, a dual nominee this year. A two-time winner in the supporting actress category for “Friends,” she has never won for this role despite three separate campaigns spanning two decades. It’s a midseason episode of the HBO Max satire. Still, voters may be inclined to reward the pure essence of the performance.

Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) | “Hacks (Finale)”

Four wins for Deborah Vance, and a series-finale submission that takes no prisoners. When a show sets the all-time comedy nomination record on its way out, this becomes a coronation. Smart has never lost for an eligible season of the HBO Max comedy. Bet accordingly.

The Emmy Awards timeline begins with nomination-round voting from June 11-22, with nominations announced on July 8. The final voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5–6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.