Listen to “Justice Has a Decision to Make” on Spreaker.

Even those who don’t live and breathe West Virginia politics could probably tell you former governor and current U.S. Senator Jim Justice might run for governor again in 2028.

The question has more salience now that the Greenbrier’s fate appears settled, at least for the foreseeable future, following the deal recently inked between the Justice family and Kennedy Lewis Investment Management.

But that also puts pressure on Justice to make a decision.

Like it or not, the 2028 contest for governor has already started, at least as far as Governor Patrick Morrisey is concerned. One could argue Morrisey never stopped running after winning. He continues to raise money, and campaign materials are already hitting mailboxes touting the administration’s accomplishments.

Justice’s tactical plan — the one almost any serious challenger would employ — isn’t rocket science. Let’s spitball a bit…

Announce the intention to seek the office before the start of the 2027 legislative session and immediately become West Virginia’s “shadow governor,” going deep and detailed on every major policy issue that emerges, as well as those already well documented that inevitably resurface in the discourse of the day.

The concept borrows from parliamentary systems, where key government positions held by the party in power are shadowed by corresponding members of the opposition who challenge policies and offer alternatives.

Economic development. Child welfare. Foster care. Workforce participation. The school aid formula. Control over education. Roads. Flock cameras. Energy. Data centers.

Anything and everything before the state.

But the strategy requires machinery. It requires a team. And Justice needs to make a final decision soon if he wants that machinery in place.

The senator must also begin fundraising. Morrisey is a prolific fundraiser who has built an enviable political apparatus. Money matters in politics. Justice can raise substantial funds too, but he can’t afford to start late.

If Justice gets in, much of the field likely clears.

State Treasurer Larry Pack hasn’t decided whether to enter the race. He has said that if Justice runs, he will not. But that doesn’t mean Pack isn’t preparing.

Pack works hard, travels the state and has built a vast network through years in business and politics. Building a successful company, employing thousands and doing it here in West Virginia matters politically. He can also leverage his network for fundraising and also possesses significant personal wealth.

It’s unlikely many of the other names floating around as potential Morrisey challengers would enter the field either if Justice does.

Then comes the campaign.

Morrisey will appeal to his base — a significant portion of the Republican Party that has remained loyal to him and his agenda. He’ll talk about his administration’s work on the fundamentals, including sewer and water infrastructure. He’ll remind voters of his efforts to defeat vaccine mandates and run on the merits of HB 2014 and his data center strategy.

Justice, if he gets in, will likely try to paint those accomplishments as small ball.

He’ll argue that many of Morrisey’s signature economic development wins were planted during the Justice administration and merely harvested under Morrisey. Justice will remind voters of his leadership on roads and COVID and his ability to work congenially with the Legislature. He’ll point to larger tax cuts under his tenure and talk about the fact the state has lost jobs since the new administration took over.

But the campaign could become more fundamental — and more personal — than any policy disagreement.

Justice will likely suggest that Morrisey isn’t really a West Virginian.

He can point to perceived political and public missteps, shortcomings exposed through late-night Facebook responses, Morrisey’s reliance on out-of-state money and dark-money PACs, and even seemingly small personal gaffes that carry political symbolism.

Consider the administration’s decision involving the “44” governor’s license plate long held by West Virginia icon Willie Akers — may he rest in peace. The controversy was ultimately resolved before the plate was actually taken, but it illustrates the kind of episode a Justice campaign could use to make a broader cultural argument about who understands West Virginia and who does not.

Of course, Justice may decide he’s happy in the Senate. He may back Pack given their relationship?

Or he may run.

But this much seems evident: Justice enjoyed a level of popularity Morrisey has not yet demonstrated.

When respondents were asked to name their favorite West Virginia governor of all time in last year’s MetroNews West Virginia Poll, 32 percent chose Justice. Nine percent chose Morrisey.

In 2028, we may get the chance to find out whether that poll was predictive and not just a preference ranking.