U.S. Rep. Ed Case was correct when he told the Honolulu Star- Advertiser ahead of the Aug. 8 primary election that mainland political trends, namely the unexpected rise of democratic socialists knocking off more moderate members of their party, do not always translate to Hawaii.

They certainly did not in Case’s own primary race against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, 42, a left-of-center Democrat who represents Kaneohe and parts of Kailua.

The more moderate, 73-year-old incumbent won the party’s nomination in a landslide, with 55.7% of the Democratic vote, or 63,679 votes, compared to 35.6% of the vote for Keohokalole, who drew only 40,740 votes.

The New York Times and Washington Post had identified Case as vulnerable against Keohokalole, who hardly considers himself a socialist. But Keohokalole’s support for bills that became law limiting state and county cooperation with federal ICE agents and aiming to restrict political spending by outside interests energized progressive Democrats in Hawaii angry over President Donald Trump.

Many of them believed Case has not been forceful in opposing Trump policies, especially when compared to the other three Democratic members of Hawaii’s congressional delegation.

Keohokalole gained momentum in his first run for a high-profile national election from supporters including Indivisible Hawai’i, a network that organized “No Dictators” rallies around the islands to coincide with “No Kings” rallies on the mainland protesting Trump.

But pragmatism, seniority and Case’s well-known name were likely big factors in persuading Democratic voters in the 720,000-resident urban Honolulu congressional district to return him to Washington for another two years, according to Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii.

On the campaign trail, Case emphasized his seniority on the House Appropriations Committee and on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, which determines federal funding for the military, especially its role in Hawaii.

Case reminded voters that the state would lose his seat on the Appropriations Committee and the seniority that would move him up in the committee if Democrats retake the House in November.

It was a message that resonated with urban Honolulu voters, many of whom are likely veterans, family of veterans or rely on military contracts, federal jobs and other federal spending, Moore said.

“The core of the (Hawaii) Democratic Party is still centrist and pragmatic,” he said. “Because Hawaii is such a Democratic state, I think that there’s often an assumption that there’s a huge well of progressive voters. And every time we see a progressive challenger, there’s an assumption that this is the time they’re going to break through.”

The progressive movement that has supported democratic socialists on the mainland are often driven by young voters. But in Hawaii, Moore explained, “younger voters don’t often turn out to vote.”

All of those factors meant that “Case performed even better than most people thought he was going to,” he said. “The core of the (Hawaii) Democratic Party is still older, centrist, organized labor voters who prefer their candidates to be older and centrist.”

The biggest primary upset in local elections was state Rep. Jackson Sayama’s defeat of Sen. Les Ihara (D, Palolo-Kaimuki- Moiliili) after the latter’s 40 years in the state Legislature.

The 75-year-old Ihara’s legislative career began when then-Gov. John Waihee appointed him to the House in 1986, followed by voters electing him to the Senate in 1994.

Sayama, 29, is hardly a socialist either, but Ihara said voters across the state are frustrated that they cannot seem to get ahead. That means a continuation of the exodus of residents seeking a more affordable way of life somewhere else.

Following his defeat, Ihara said local Democratic voters are less concerned with political identity than with finding someone who will relieve their financial “pain” no matter their ideology.

Sayama beat Ihara definitively, with 6,486 votes, or 61.5%, compared to Ihara’s 3,074 votes representing 29.2% of the Senate district’s turnout.

After 40 years in the Legislature, Ihara said the message was clear: “They had a choice between someone who says, ‘I’ve been working to provide relief for 40 years’ while problems like affordability, affordable housing have gotten worse.

“We’re losing the future generations who are not able to continue to belong in Hawaii because they cannot find a good-paying job in order to buy a home,” he said. “They want someone who will work to relieve their pain now, not in another 40 years.”

Sayama (D, Wilhelmina Rise-Maunalani Heights-St. Louis Heights) did not immediately respond to a request for comment. He chairs the House Labor Committee and was first elected in 2020 at the age of 23.

By various accounts, he canvassed hard in Ihara’s Senate district, listening to voters’ concerns. They responded with their overwhelming support.

While the Sayama-Ihara race is an example of a much younger Democrat challenger handily beating a much older incumbent, Moore said: “I didn’t see any evidence that this was an ideological contest.”

“Ihara faced the hardest thing you can face as an incumbent, which is another elected official running against you who already has the name recognition and organization in place. I think he (Sayama) ran a much more energetic campaign, and he persuaded older voters to vote for him.”

While young Democrats mobilized around younger, more progressive candidates, Moore noted that “a lot of the political mobilization in Hawaii still happens through unions.”

Former state Rep. John Mizuno, 62, failed in his Democratic Party comeback attempt to regain his former House District 29 seat to represent Kamehameha Heights-Kalihi Valley, losing to incumbent Rep. Ikaika Hussey, 48.

Mizuno resigned from office to serve as Gov. Josh Green’s housing and homeless coordinator. He was replaced by his wife, May Mizuno, who was bested by Hussey in her first election effort.

This year, John Mizuno tried to retake his seat after a three-year absence but faced the challenge of taking on an incumbent.

Once out of office, Mizuno said, “you become yesterday’s news. You’re all but forgotten.”

Even though Hussey is more progressive than he is, Mizuno said local Democrats are wary of embracing extremely left socialists who want “free (school) lunch and free health care. Somebody’s got to pay for it, either through extreme taxes, government or private involvement. You’ve got to be realistic.”

He agreed with the consensus that Sayama’s defeat of a much older and more experienced senator like Ihara illustrated Sayama’s willingness to engage in old-fashioned canvassing, rather than any political affiliation or ideology.

“Jackson Sayama mounted a powerful, relentless campaign,” Mizuno said. “His ground game was impeccable. Complete respect to Sen. Ihara, but he came upon a major power who went door-to-door relentlessly. You’ve got to be willing to walk the district. They’re going to give you an earful.”